Bill's Columns

For the year-end tables of Leading Sires in various categories of APEX ratings, which measure the frequency with which stallions sire runners who meet certain earnings percentage thresholds, sires have to have had 200+ year-starters going back as far as seven seasons (a horse is counted as one ‘year-starter’ each year it races, as with the average-earnings index). The top category is ‘A Runners’, measuring the top 2% of earners in each jurisdiction each year.

On January 14, 2016, we published the Leading Sires by A Runner Index for the years 2009-2015 (Thoroughbred Daily News, January 14, 2016). The top three sires were Galileo (4.09 A Runner Index), Into Mischief (4.07), and War Front (3.89). Galileo, whose first foals were born in 2003 and raced in 2005, had 1,945 year-starters 2009-2015; War Front, whose first foals were born in 2008 and raced in 2010 (so the statistics were covering six years in his case, not seven), had 655 year-starters. Into Mischief’s first crop were foaled in 2010, and raced in 2012; he only had a total of 140 foals in his first four crops (his fourth crop were 2-year-olds of 2015), so he made the list with just 209 year-starters in the four seasons 2012-2015. But his second ranking on that list was the first time we had statistical confirmation that this sire was the real deal; there was a case for saying Into Mischief was on his way to being one of the top three sires in America, along with Tapit and War Front.

Into Mischief’s 2014 crop, his fifth, numbered 161 foals, and he averaged around 160 foals for each of the next three crops; his eighth crop are 2-year-olds of 2019, so he has made up for lost time, with now around 780 foals of racing age. But this is what Into Mischief has done since his four big crops started racing: in 2016, he was North America’s Leading Sire of 2-year-olds. In 2017, he was North America’s #3 sire of 2-year-olds, behind Scat Daddy and fellow F2010 sire, Curlin. In 2018 he was Leading Sire of 2-year-olds, and in 2019 he is not only North America’s Leading Sire of 2-year-olds for the third time in four years, he is also number one on the North American General Sire List, including, through Dec. 27, 53 black-type horses in 2019, of which 23 are Graded SH, including five 2-year-olds who achieved G1 placings in September and October.

How good is this sire? Since he started having big crops, he has been number one on the 2-Year-Old Sire List three times and ranked third the other time, and is now number one on the General Sire List. ‘Remarkable’ is a word that maybe gets over-used, but in my view Into Mischief really is a remarkable sire. His relentless march to the top is breathtaking.

As an aside, we’re entitled to ask if the tables would look the same if he had been forced to operate under a 140-mare cap? It’s entirely possible under those circumstances he wouldn’t be the Into Mischief we know today. Just saying.

DIARY OF AN ECLIPSE VOTER

In a year where there is quite a bit of room for discussion, a few of the Eclipse Awards are cut and dried, but most are not. One prediction I’m prepared to make, as an Eclipse voter myself, is that the three finalists for Horse of the Year will be Bricks and Mortar, Mitole, and Maximum Security. All three will win their respective divisions in a canter. Bricks and Mortar, a 5-year-old by Giant’s Causeway, is a certainty for Champion Male Turf Horse after going 6-for-6 (including 5 G1’s and a G2) in a season stretching from January’s G1 Pegasus Turf Cup through the November 2 G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf, at distances from 9f – 12f. Mitole, by Giant’s Causeway’s son, Eskendereya, is sure to be named Champion Male Sprinter; he went 6-for-7 in 2019, his four G1 wins coming at 6 furlongs (Breeders’ Cup Sprint), 7 furlongs (Churchill Downs H. and Forego H.), and 1 mile (Met Mile). He also has a chance to be named Older Dirt Male, though I suspect Vino Rosso will win that category over McKinzie. And Maximum Security’s win over fellow 3-year-old Spun to Run, himself fresh from a victory in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, clinched his title as Champion 3-year-old colt. But which will be Horse of the Year? Not so clear. Personally, I give Mitole the edge over Bricks and Mortar, basically off his Met Mile win over McKinzie and Thunder Snow.

The big winner, from this list of three candidates, is Japan’s breeding industry. Bricks And Mortar is going to Japan’s top stallion operation, Shadai, which stood Sunday Silence and Deep Impact and is always on the lookout for top-class outcrosses to that blood. Eskendereya, now sire of two G1 Met Mile winners in three years (the other: another Spendthrift stallion, 2017 winner Mor Spirit, meaning with Mitole standing there as well, Spendthrift has a total monopoly on Met Mile winners by Eskendereya), already stands in Japan. And also already in Japan for 2020, again at Shadai, is New Year’s Day, the son of Street Cry who is the sire of Maximum Security. New Year’s Day was actually sold to Brazil, but was then snapped up for Japan in a hurry after Maximum Security won (and then was disqualified from) the G1 Kentucky Derby. Maximum Security remains in training for 2020, and seemingly will be targeting the new $20-million Saudi race and the G1 Dubai World Cup.

Another interesting angle from the breeding point of view is this unlikely legacy of Street Cry. How many people (answer: none) would have predicted the most prominent horse from the Street Cry line might be a son of New Year’s Day, whose claim to fame was that he won the 2013 G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his third and final career start for the Wests and trainer Bob Baffert. By the sire of two of the all-time great racemares in Zenyatta and Winx, Street Cry’s best sire son is Street Sense, the first horse to win the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and following year’s G1 Kentucky Derby (the second, and only other horse to do it – Nyquist), and who will be represented in 2020 by the rising 5-year-old McKinzie, himself a top sire prospect who could easily clash with Maximum Security in the Middle East, and by the rising 3-year-old Maxfield (see below). McKinzie and Maximum Security, at least, in 2021 would represent a serious opportunity for Street Cry’s male line to be extended.

OTHER ECLIPSE AWARDS

A few of the other categories are straightforward, most are not. We’re required to select a 1-2-3 in all categories (to break ties). So here goes – the thought processes of an Eclipse voter. Feel free to tweet your comments to @billoppenheim; the voting doesn’t close until January 2 so you still have time to influence at least one voter.

2-Year-Old Colts:

This is the most difficult category, and the temptation is to pick No Body. With American 2-year-olds so lightly raced now, virtually all of the serious contenders had four starts or less. I still think the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile turns out to be the key race, even though after Maxfield (another by Street Sense!) had to be scratched and Dennis’ Moment (by Tiznow) went to his knees the race became a lot more winnable for the 45-1 shot Storm the Court (by Court Vision). You can make a case for at least eight horses, also including G1 Hopeful winner Basin (first crop of Liam’s Map); G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Structor (first crop of Palace Malice); G2 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Four Wheel Drive (first crop of American Pharoah); G2 Los Alamitos Futurity winner Thousand Words (Pioneerof The Nile); and 12-length G3 Nashua S. winner Independence Hall (first crop of Constitution). Myself, I think the champion should be a G1 winner, so my picks are: 1 Maxfield (won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity), 2 Storm the Court, 3 Dennis’ Moment (went off at 4-5 in the Juvenile, having scored an impressive bloodless win in the G3 Iroquois). You’d like to have seen them all have run once more, really.

2-Year-Old Fillies:

Pretty straightforward: British Idiom, by a son of Tapit called Flashback who, like New Year’s Day, was raced by the Wests and stood at Hill ‘n’ Dale, was then discarded because of lack of support from outside breeders, is the champion; she won the G1 Alcibiades, then won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, over Donna Veloce and Bast, both from Uncle Mo’s fifth crop. Bast won three other G1’s and gets my vote for second, over Sharing (Speightstown), winner of a very competitive G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Still listed as being owned by the Wests, Flashback now stands at Glenn Brok’s Diamond B Farm in Pennsylvania; Brok, incidentally, also owns the horse transport company Brook Ledge.

3-Year-Old Colt:

Again straightforward: Maximum Security won three other G1’s besides crossing the wire first in the Kentucky Derby – the Florida Derby, Haskell, and, decisively, the G1 Cigar Mile, in which he defeated Spun to Run, fresh from beating a good field, including Omaha Beach, in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Spun to Run (Hard Spun) is my #2 pick, and for #3 I go for Code of Honor (first crop of Frankel’s brother, Noble Mission), though others might prefer Omaha Beach (War Front) or Country House (Lookin At Lucky), who inherited the Derby. But I think the winner is decisive: Maximum Security.

3-Year-Old Fillies:

The middle-distance dirt fillies rather divided up the top races: Serengeti Empress (Alternation) won the G1 Kentucky Oaks; Dunbar Road (Quality Road) won the G2 Mother Goose and G1 Alabama; and Street Band (Istan) won the G1 Cotillion, defeating the only two-time G1 winner among these, Guarana (Ghostzapper), who won the G1 Acorn and G1 CCA Oaks. I thought the most impressive performances were by the sprinting filly Covfefe (Into Mischief), who went 5-for-6 on the year, including the G1 Test and the G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, both at 7 furlongs; and the turf filly, Concrete Rose (Twirling Candy), who went 4-for-4 for the year, including the G1 Belmont Oaks and the new (therefore ungraded) Saratoga Oaks. I will go for Covfefe, with Concrete Rose second, and Guarana third.

Older Dirt Male:

Vino Rosso (Curlin) gets the call here, winning three G1’s at 10 furlongs (though controversially disqualified in favour of the 3-year-old Code of Honor in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup), finishing up with a convincing win over McKinzie in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic. McKinzie is undoubtedly the better horse at the more conventional American dirt distance of 9 furlongs, at which distance he won the G1 Whitney, rather handily, over Yoshida and Vino Rosso. McKinzie made seven starts on the year for two wins and five seconds. Mitole is going to be champion sprinter.

Older Dirt Female:

Though she was defeated by Blue Prize (Pure Prize) in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Midnight Bisou (Midnight Lute) won her other seven starts this year, including three G1’s, and deserves the championship. Blue Prize is a clear second choice, and I thought Elate (Medaglia D’Oro), who won two G2’s this year, then ran second to both Midnight Bisou and Blue Prize in G1’s before a courageous 4th against the boys in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, earns the bronze medal.

Male Sprinter:

Mitole, as noted, wins this category for me, but a very honorable second is World of Trouble (Kantharos), who went 4-for-4 on the year, starting odds-on in all four races, before injury stopped him after Belmont S. weekend. He won the G1 Carter H. at 7 furlongs on dirt and the G2 Turf Sprint (5 ½ furlongs, Churchill Downs) and G1 Jaipur (6 furlongs, Belmont) on grass in 2019. I was tempted to pick the 3-year-old speedball Shancelot (Shanghai Bobby) for third, but he was beaten by Omaha Beach (War Front) in the G1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship before running second to Mitole in the Breeders’ Cup, so I’ll go for Omaha Beach for third in this category.

Female Sprinter:

Covfefe gets the nod here for me, but again there’s a very strong second choice in Belvoir Bay, a 6-year-old Equiano mare who led all the way and beat the boys in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at 5 furlongs at Santa Anita. She had also run second to Blue Point in the 6-furlong G1 Al Quoz Sprint in Dubai. Third is up for debate, but I’d go for Marley’s Freedom, a 5-year-old Blame mare who won two G2’s and ran second in two G1’s in her four 2019 starts through July.

Male Turf:

Bricks and Mortar in his easiest win of the year. World of Trouble runs second for here as well, with maybe Arklow, a 5-year-old by Arch who won the G1 Turf Classic, third.

Female Turf:

This was a really salty division, but the winner for me is Uni (More Than Ready), who won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile. Sistercharlie (Myboycharlie), also from the Chad Brown stable, won three G1’s and ran third in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, is my runner-up, and the show horse is Got Stormy, by Get Stormy, who beat the boys (and Uni) in the G1 Fourstardave at Saratoga and ran second to Uni in the Breeders’ Cup Mile

I’ll pass on the People categories for the moment, as well as the jumpers (although Winston C, by Rip Van Winkle, looks a lock to win this), so, for the moment anyway, here is what my Eclipse ballot will look like. As I say, feel free to tweet us your comments, thanks for listening, and best wishes to all for a healthy and safe 2020.

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Worldwide Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter @billoppenheim