Bill's Columns

In September 2006, my future colleague, Emily Plant, was beginning her Ph.D. studies at the University of Kentucky. Emily, who is originally from Louisville, was a seasoned horsewoman and had been to Churchill Downs plenty of times, but had never actually been to a Keeneland auction. She happened to arrive there at the absolute market peak: the 2006 Keeneland September Sale, which grossed a record $399,791,800 – about two horses short of $400-million – and featured John Ferguson, on behalf of Sheikh Mohammed, signing for 34 horses for a total of $59,945,000 - about one bid short of $60-million - for an average outlay of more than $1.7-million. The average price for the 3,556 yearlings sold at the 2006 Keeneland September Sale was $112,427.

The next year, 2007, the number sold peaked at 3,799, while the gross dropped slightly, to $385-million, and the average dipped to $101,347. Then the World Economic Crash happened; though in 2008 the gross dropped to just under $328-million, the thoroughbred market crash happened in 2009, when the September Sale gross plunged 42% to $191-million, and the average dropped a third from the previous year, to just $60,734. In the four years from 2006-2009 the September Sale gross dropped by more than half, and the average crashed by 46%, from $112,427 in 2006 to $60,734 in 2009.

While the foal crop dramatically shrank, the North American auction market basically crawled across the bottom. In 2012 there were 2,516 yearlings sold at the September Sale; the gross totalled just under $219.8-million, 15% higher than in 2009, for a gain of about 5% per year. But 20% fewer yearlings were sold than in 2009, so the average had climbed back up to $87,354, a gain of 44% (for the survivors) from 2009, and nearly level with the 2008 average of $90,984 – though with 30% fewer sold than in 2008.

The first big jump after 2009 came in 2013; that year the number sold went up 9% from the previous year, to 2,744; the gross jumped by over $60-million, to $280-million, and the $102,220 average topped six figures for the first time since 2007. Then the market stalled: the September gross remained +/- $280-million for four consecutive years, 2013-2016, in fact dropping to $272,890,500 in 2016. Even now, the 2,855 yearlings sold at the 2019 sale is only 4% higher than the number sold in 2013, though the number catalogued has grown by almost 19%, and the clearance rate (number sold from number catalogued) has dropped from 70.2% in 2013 to 61.4% this year.

That’s the historical context. Then the gross advanced $35-million in 2017, and the average of $120,487 was a new record average. In 2018 the September market really took wing, jumping another $70-million, to $377,140,400, and the average again hit a new high of $129,335. So from 2016 to 2018 the gross leapt by almost $105-million (38%), and the average jumped 42%. In that context, this year’s dip of $17-million in gross (4.5%) and 2.5% in average, to $126,096, seems not a cause for great concern – especially considering there was universal agreement that the market was super-strong, and it was very difficult to buy a nice horse. In particular the third day of Book 1, Sept. 18, was about the strongest North American yearling sale session in probably the last 12 years. The only real worry about the single-digit drops is that we hope it doesn’t replicate the slight drop from 2006 to 2007, considering the massive crash which came after that. That scenario we cannot foretell; what we can say is that a retraction of less than 5% after 40% gains the last two years is not, by itself, a cause for concern.

This year, exactly 200 sires recorded yearling sales at Keeneland September. The following tables tabulate both their Keeneland statistics, and their overall statistics for all yearlings sold since July 1; the leaders’ table, covering 27 sires with yearlings sold at Keeneland September and overall 2019 yearling sale averages of $150,000+, is ranked by overall yearling average, rather than by Keeneland September average.

Of the 27 which had yearlings at Keeneland September and a $150,000+ average, five had three or under yearlings sell at Keeneland: European sires Dubawi (overall yearling average leader so far, four so far averaging $916,937), Galileo (#2, 10 sold, avg $659,477), Lope De Vega (11, $191,354), and No Nay Never (16, $174,972), and Successful Appeal, now retired, who has had just one yearling sell, which brought $250,000 at Keeneland. The other 22 sires have each had 28 or more yearlings sold, bar War front, who’s had 15 yearlings sell.

Four American sires have averaged over $500,000 at the yearling sales so far: Curlin is the #1 sire by average, with 51 yearlings grossing almost $31-million and averaging $607,000. Medaglia D’Oro is second, with 31 yearlings averaging $596,226. War Front, as mentioned has had 15 sell, for an average of $574,333; and Tapit has had 29 yearlings sell, for an average of $545,689. Leading Freshman Sire American Pharoah ranks fifth, with 63 yearlings from his second crop averaging $436,434. His sire, Pioneerof The Nile (49, $360,306), Into Mischief (82, $357,690), Quality Road (57, $347,070), Uncle Mo (57, $334,772), and Empire Maker (49, $289,040) round out the top ten North American sires by 2019 yearling average (since July 1).

Three first-crop yearling sires are included among the 22: Darley’s duo of Nyquist (36, $257,722) and Frosted (59, $238,898) rank 1-3 among first-crop sires, split by Claiborne’s Runhappy (50, $240,660). Combined, these three have had 145 yearlings sell for an average of $244,179; take your pick, they’re all well fancied. Five other first-crop sires are clustered between $97,000-$110,000: WinStar’s #4 Outwork (42, $109,988) and #8 Exaggerator (46, $97,369); Ashford’s #5 Air Force Blue (33, $107,495); Taylor Made’s #6 California Chrome (31, $102,903); and Shadwell’s #7 Tamarkuz (10, $98,500). Besides American Pharoah, the only other sire with five or fewer crops racing who has averaged over $150,000 is F2014 Union Rags, who’s had 54 yearlings average $218,957 so far this yearling season.