Bill's Columns

The US yearling market gross was up $83-million (+18%) in 2018, with the overall average for 4,974 yearlings sold up 9%, to $106,659. The Fasig July yearling sale in 2018 saw 196 horses sold – just about 4% of the total which eventually sold. So it could be a mistake to project anything about the overall yearling market based on the first 4% which sell; still, it’s the first sale of the yearling sale season, so requires examination at the very least.

This year, the catalogue grew by 15 horses, from 349 to 364; six more sold, making a total of 202 listed sales on July 9. The gross dipped by 6%, from $19,762,00 to $18,621,000; the average was down 9%, from $100,629 in 2018 to $92,183, but the median was stable, at $75,000. The number sold for $200,000 or more dipped from 24 to 14, however – a drop of 41% in that category. No one seemed unduly alarmed about the statistics, which felt relatively minor, and the fact the median stayed the same seems like a big plus.

Fasig July is no longer the New Sires Showcase, but new sires were once again prominent on the sires’ average list, in fact no fewer than eight of them (with three or more sold) recorded six-figure averages. Darley’s Frosted, one would have to say, just about stole the show, with four yearlings selling for an average of $228,750. Claiborne’s Runhappy, who comes with a lot of attractive attached bonuses, averaged $156,750 with his four sold, followed by another Darley sire, 2016 G1 Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist, whose three sold for an average of $153,3330. However, only 11 sold among the three of them; others had considerably more.

Two WinStar sires, Speightster and Outwork, had very good sales. Speightster (no guessing who’s his sire?) had six sell (though from 13 catalogued) for an average of $140,833, ranking him fourth among first-crop sires; and #6-ranked Outwork had ten average $107,500 – over seven times his opening fee. Two sons of Giant’s Causeway make the list: Spendthrift’s #5-ranked Brody’s Cause (4/avg $111,250); and Taylor Made’s Not This Time, whose three yearlings to sell (of 10 catalogued) have averaged $106,667. Airdrie’s Upstart was another to have a very good sale, with his five yearlings averaging $104,000. Quite a few more by many of these will be at Saratoga, for Fasig-Tipton’s flagship sale August 5-6, including 13 by Frosted, nine by Nyquist, four by Runhappy, and three each for Speightster and Outwork, plus five by Exaggerator, four by California Chrome, and three by Air Force Blue. Mind you, they will be playing second fiddle to the likes of Into Mischief (16), Uncle Mo (12), Curlin (11), American Pharoah, Pioneerof The Nile, Quality Road (9 each), Medaglia D’Oro (8), and Tapit (7) in that sale.

APEX stallion ratings (Annual Progeny Earnings index) are a significantly enhanced version of an average-earnings index. They actually consist of 17 different ratings, calculated by class, age, and geographical region, and based on the frequency with which horses sire runners which achieve certain earnings thresholds. In each country, jurisdiction, or region, the top 2% of earners/runners each year are designated ‘A Runners’; the next 2% ‘B Runners’; the next 4% ‘C Runners’; and the top 8% combined, ‘ABC Runners’. The ‘signature index’, if you will, is the ‘A Runner Index’ (comparable to the average-earnings index). We calculate the ratings going back seven years, and require that sires had 10+ 3-year-old foals in the last year included (so they had to have 10+ foals of 2016 to be rated). This requirement results in an A Runner Index of 1.00 really equalling an average stallion, whereas the average-earnings index tends to be inflated, from the point of view of the commercial market, by including all foals by all stallions. In the Northern Hemisphere, we assign APEX ratings in three regions: North America (US and Canada); Europe (UK/Ireland, France, and Germany); and Japan.

Since there is much more commerce involving North America and Europe, for this review we set Japan to one side (Deep Impact 4.74), and concentrate on 383 North American and European sires which have had 200+ ‘year-starters’ since the beginning of 2013 (one horse is one ‘year-starter’ each year it starts, and can also be one A Runner, etc. each year; this is the same as how an average-earnings index is calculated). Incidentally, as recently as 2013 there were 501 sires which qualified for inclusion, meaning there has been a 24% decline in the number of qualifying sires in the last six years.

We run the figures at a mid-year point (usually after the fourth of July weekend; these through July 7) and year-end. In the last seven years Galileo has ranked first or second by A Runner Index every year, which I find amazing as he has the highest number of runners as well as the highest or second-highest frequency of success – that’s hard to do. In that period he has led the list three times and been second the other four. The other leaders since 2013 have been War Front, Uncle Mo (the year he had his first 3-year-olds; unusually for a sire with first 3-year-olds, he qualified by having more than 200 year-starters in just two years of racing), and now, at year-end 2018 and mid-year 2019, Galileo’s best son, Frankel (6.24 A Runner Index). Undoubtedly he’s helped by having only about a fifth as many year-starters (441 since 2016, the first year they raced) as Galileo (1,956), but there’s no doubt: he’s Galileo’s best son to date, at stud just as he was on the racecourse.

Frankel (6.24) and Galileo (5.80) are the top two by some margin. There are 44 (of 383) sires with an A Runner Index of 2.00+, which we would then describe as roughly the top 10% of rated sires. Ten of them – say the top 3% of sires – have indexes of 3.00+, so that’s pretty rarefied air. Dubawi (4.93) ranks #3, with War Front (4.50) #4. Since an A Runner index of 1.00 equals 2.00% of runners, a 4.50 index means exactly 9.00% of War Front’s runners 2013-2019 were A Runners. That’s a very high proportion. Tapit (3.58) and Uncle Mo (3.58) tie for fifth, ahead of Medaglia D’Oro (3.52) in seventh. The top ten is rounded out by Dansili (3.12), Ghostzapper (3.10), and Sea The Stars (3.10).

Curlin (2.99) heads the second ten, followed by Shamardal (2.91) and Scat Daddy (2.88), who will be rated for the last time at year-end as this is his final crop of 3-year-olds. Quality Road (2.82), who is proving over and over again that he really belongs in the top echelon of sires, comes next, followed by Teofilo (2.79); Speightstown (2.73); the German sire Adlerflug (2.67); Intello (2.66), the top F2015 sire (first 4-year-olds 2019) by A Runner Index; Candy Ride (2.63); and Into Mischief (2.61).

Two other F2015 sires with 200+ year-starters are among the 44 sires with 2.00+ A Runner indexes: Take Charge Indy (2.18), who looks like a big score for South Korea; and Camelot (2.12), who is the crop leader in numbers of good horses. Among sires with their first 5-year-olds, there is #1 Frankel, and Union Rags (2.02). F2013 sires are represented by #6 Uncle Mo and Twirling Candy (2.07), now having his best year yet. There are six among the top 44 from the group of sires with their first foals 2012, making this the deepest sire group of the last few years: besides Quality Road this group includes: Kantharos (2.39), whose first Kentucky crop are just yearlings; Lookin At Lucky (2.29); Siyouni (2.15); Lope de Vega (2.02); and Concord Point (2.01). Munnings (1.96) is not far behind.

Sires with their first 3-year-olds (F2016) are now rated for the first time. Among those with 70+ year-starters so far, no surprise, Juddmonte’s Kingman (3.64) leads the way, ahead of German Derby winner Sea The Moon (3.00), who stands at Lanwades Stud in England, and Coolmore’s Australia (2.84). The top American sire with 70+ year-starters is Adena Springs’ Mucho Macho Man (2.53)