26 EUROPEAN VALUE SIRES AND MARKET PICKS AT 15K AND UNDER
Date: December 16th, 2017
Not surprisingly when we focus on sires at £15,000/€15,000 and under we are more in the realm of unproven rather than proven sires: only four of the 25 stallions we selected as ‘value sires or market picks’ in Britain, Ireland, France, or Germany and standing for 15,000 or under have 3-year-olds or older, whereas we have nine horses on our list retiring to stud for 2018.
The true ‘proven’ sire is Ireland’s Derrinstown Stud’s Tamayuz, whose first foals were born in 2010 and raced in 2012, and whose recent success has led to a price hike from €8,000 in 2017 to €12,500. He’s well worth it: he’s the sire of sprinters G Force and Sir Prancealot, as well as Blond Me, who scored a well-deserved Group One win in this year’s E.P. Taylor S. over 10 furlongs at Woodbine. Tamayuz, who was from Nayef’s first crop, was the best 3-year-old miler in France in 2008, and in fact he was 5-for-5 lifetime in France; he was only ever beaten twice, both at Ascot. He’s out of a Nureyev mare, out of a Riverman half-sister to Urban Sea, so he has an awesome pedigree too.
Choisir, from Danehill Dancer’s second Australian crop, won the then-G2 King’s Stand S. (over Acclamation) on the Tuesday of Royal Ascot 2003, then came back on the Saturday to win the G1 then-Golden (now Diamond) Jubilee (defeating Airwave). Coolmore’s Starspangledbanner was a dual G1 winner in Australia by Choisir, then scored a 6-furlong Group One double in England in 2010, winning the then-Golden Jubilee (defeating Society Rock) and July Cup (over Equiano). His first crop included The Wow Signal, who won the G2 Coventry at Royal Ascot, followed by the G1 Prix Morny; Anthem Alexander, who won the G2 Queen Mary; and dual G3 winner Home of the Brave. He seems to be over his well-documented fertility problems so rates a very attractive proposition, a proven sire for €15,000.
Then, two stallions in France, Haras de Grandcamp’s Dream Ahead, sire of nine 2017 Black-Type Winners (BTW), including G1 winner Al Wukair. He is the leading 2017 third-crop (first foals 2013, now 4-year-olds) European sire, and giving Coolmore’s Zoffany (who stands for €25,000) a run for his money for the top spot by cumulative progeny earnings. France is rightfully being touted for the dramatic improvement in its stallion ranks; at €12,000 he’s a horse who is getting the job done but a little bit under the radar. Haras de Montfort & Preaux’s Rajsaman – the last Linamix – is Europe’s number four third-crop sire, and sired Brametot (himself now a €10,000 stallion at Bouquetot), winner of the French 2000 Guineas – French Derby double, in his first crop. Rajsaman is still pretty serious value at €8,000.
Almost nothing is more perilous than betting freshman sires to go on, but Tweenhills’ Havana Gold is third on the European Freshman Sire List (Progeny Earnings) behind only Society Rock (dead) and Dabirism (€30,000), and is showing plenty of promise. Himself a Group One winner over a mile, Havana Gold, by Teofilo, is out of the rocket 5-furlong sprinter Jessica’s Dream. She was by Desert Style, a son of Green Desert; Teofilo himself is out of a Danehill mare but does very well over another cross of Danzig. Havana Gold, sire of 21 winners, including Group 3 winners Havana Grey and Treasuring, as well as Royal Ascot G2 Coventry S, second Headway, will be standing for £15,000 in 2018, up from £8,000. He deserves to.
Darley’s Farhh, like Nathaniel, Zoffany, and Excelebration, had form behind Frankel, which seems to be working out just as well in the breeding shed as it did on the racetrack. Farhh, who is by Pivotal from a good German family, didn’t run much – only 10 times in four seasons – but he was first or second in nine of those, and third in the other. At four he was: third to So You Think in the G1 Prince of Wales; second to Nathaniel in the G1 Eclipse; second to Frankel (beaten 6 lengths) in the G1 Sussex at a mile; then second again to Frankel (beaten 7 lengths) in the G1 Juddmonte International; and second again, beaten a head by Moonlight Cloud, in the G1 Prix du Moulin. He then ran twice as a 5-year-old, five months apart, and won two Group Ones: the Lockinge, at a mile, in May; and the British Champion S., at a mile and a quarter, in October. So Farhh went to stud with plenty of credentials. He only had 33 foals in his first crop, but three of them are black-type horses (BTH), including G3 Acomb S. winner Wells Farhh Go (good name) and the dual stakes-placed colt Dee Ex Bee. Farhh has been raised from £8,000 to £10,000 for 2018, but I’d say that’s fair enough considering he didn’t figure to have 2-year-olds in any case.
Two more from this category (2017 freshman sires) in France: 2011 French Derby winner Reliable Man, by Dalakhani, has moved to Haras Du Thenney, where he will stand next year for €7,000, from Germany. His first crop, sired in Germany, has two Group 3 winners there, including Erasmus, impressive 6-length winner of the Preis des Winterfavoriten at Cologne in October. Haras De La Haie Neuve’s Pedro The Great is a half-brother to Footstepsinthesand by Henrythenavigator and won the 6-furlong G1 Phoenix S. on soft ground as a 2-year-old. He’s been standing for €3,000 but his first crop of 34 foals includes three Black-Type Horses, including Santa Anita BTW Fatale Bere for trainer Leonard Powell, so Pedro The Great’s fee is doubling, but still to only €6,000. He looks to be doing well and moving mares up, so that’s good value.
If betting on horses which have just had their first 2-year-olds is a dodgy proposition, betting on sires which have never had a runner could be dismissed as pure speculation. Here the voice of the auction marketplace must be taken into account. Of the four sires with first 2-year-olds next year which we’ve selected, and which stand for 15,000 or less, the one for which the market spoke most loudly is England’s Lanwades Stud’s Sea The Moon, the runaway 2014 G1 German Derby winner by Sea The Stars out of a Monsun full sister to Samum, Schiaperelli, and Salve Regina. He had 51 yearlings sell for an average of $90,213, ranking him fourth among European first-crop yearling sires, behind Kingman, Australia, and No Nay Never (€25,000 in 2018). Sea The Moon remains at £15,000 next year.
Qatari Sheikh Joaan Al Thani has been a big new player in bloodstock in recent years, particularly in France, and their Haras de Bouquetot is assembling a formidable roster of stallions, including a horse who shouldn’t be underrated, another son of Choisir, Olympic Glory. Originally bought by the Doyles, Peter and Ross, for £65,000 for long-time Hannon owner Julie Wood, Olympic Glory ran 15 times, breaking his maiden in his first start and never running thereafter in anything other than a Group Race; in fact, his last nine starts were all in Group 1’s. He ran second to Dawn Approach in the G2 Coventry in his second start, then won two seven-furlong Group Two races at Newmarket and Goodwood, and raced in Sheikh Joann’s colors for the first time when winning the 2012 G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardare. He won the G1 Queen Elizabeth S. at three and two Group 1’s at four, the Lockinge at Newbury, and the Prix de la Foret on Arc day, dispelling the notion he needed soft ground when running the seven furlongs in an almost-impossible 1:17.73. He also placed in three further Group 1’s at a mile. He had 48 yearlings sell this year from his first crop, averaging $61,819; having stood for €15,000 up until now, he drops to €12,000 for 2018.
Though he didn’t bowl them over in the marketplace (48 yearlings averaged $28,817) we’ve always had more than a sneaking regard for the Wertheimers’ Anodin, a full brother to no less than Goldikova, by Anabaa. His best win came in the G3 Paul de Moussac (1m) as a 3-year-old, but he also placed in no fewer than 5 Group 1’s, four of them at a mile (the Moulin as a 3-year-old; the Queen Anne, Jacques le Marois, and Breeders’ Cup Mile, in which he was an arguably unlucky second to Karakontie, at four), plus the Prix d’Ispahan (9 1/2f.). He stands at Quesnay, where he has been €7,500 until next year, when he will stand for a bargain-basement €6,000.
The Coolmore team’s 2013 G1 Epsom Derby Ruler Of The World was rather overshadowed in the marketplace by the same firm’s 2014 Derby winner Australia (€35,000), averaging just $33,150 for 19 yearlings sold. He possibly wasn’t helped in the marketplace by being a half-brother to Duke of Marmalade, who turned out ok but was slow to get going, but Ruler Of The World’s second dam is a half-sister to Weekend Surprise, dam of A.P. Indy and Summer Squall, so it’s not like he doesn’t have the pedigree, and the judges say he’s a very good-looking horse himself, too. He originally stood for €15,000 but was down to only €8,000 this year and for 2018. The might turn out to be a serious bargain down the line.
The top three European sires by weanling (foal) average with their first foals 2017 (Muhaarar, Golden Horn, and Gleneagles) all stand for a lot more than £15,000/€15,000, but the next three do not, and make this list: Darley Dalham Hall’s Night of Thunder and Brazen Beau, and Yeomanstown/Morriston Stud’s Gutaifan, a son of the same firm’s Dark Angel. Night of Thunder, by Dubawi out of a Galileo mare, has the distinction of being the only horse ever to beat Kingman, at 40-1 in the 2014 G1 English 2000 Guineas. Kingman got his revenge right away, in the G1 St. James’s Palace S. at Royal Ascot, but even so, Night of Thunder is an interesting prospect, especially moving to Dalham Hall for £15,000 after two years at Kildangan at €30,000 and €25,000. He ranks a clear fourth among European F2017 sires by first weanlings average, with 23 foals having averaged $68,208.
It’s a guessing game about a lot of these Australian sprinter-milers who are dual-hemisphered to Europe for stud duty, but the ones who come over here and show their mettle at Royal Ascot, like Choisir and Starspangledbanner, at least have the advantage of being better known. Brazen Beau, a dual G1 winner sprinting in Australia, came to Royal Ascot as a late 3-year-old having put his sire, I Am Invincible (by Invincible Spirit) on the map, and was beaten a head by Undrafted. That’s close enough; we should pay attention. He was #6 among European F2017 sires at the foal sales, where 18 weanlings by him averaged $44,843. He originally stood for £10,000 but is down to a tasty £7,000 for 2018.
Splitting Night of Thunder and Brazen Beau on that list, in fifth, was Gutaifan, recruited by Dark Angel’s team from Al Shaqab as a back-up to his sire, Dark Angel. Gutaifan ran only at two; trained by Richard Hannon, he won the G2 Prix Robert Papin (5 1/2f) and G2 Flying Childers (5f), and was beaten only by stablemate Shalaa in the G1 Prix Morny. He originally stood for €12,500, is now down to €10,000, and had no fewer than 54 weanlings sell, for an average of $54,831.
Among sires which covered their first mares in 2017 and whose first mares in foal have just sold, we thought Gilltown Stud’s Harzand, the 2016 G1 Epsom Derby and Irish Derby winner, is anything but overpriced at €15,000. Eight mares in foal to him have averaged $100,913. And we’ve a lot of time for a son of Acclamation raced by Al Shaqab, Tally Ho Stud’s Mehmas. He is out of a Machiavellian mare, so bred on the same cross as Dark Angel. I love his form: he was second to Caravaggio in the G2 Coventry S. and second to Churchill in the G1 National S. at seven furlongs, and in between won two 6-furlong G2’s, the July S. at Newmarket and the Richmond S. at Goodwood (defeating Blue Point). He was €12,500 this year, had seven mares average just €34,180 in foal to him, and is down to €10,000 for 2018.
We finish off with no fewer than nine stallions retiring for 15,000 and under in Europe next year. In England, two new horses to The National Stud are Aclaim (£12,500) and Time Test (£8,500). If we just took his three starts as a 3-year-old last year and 4-year-old this year Aclaim’s record would read 6 starts 5-1-0. At three he finished up winning the G2 Challenge S., while this year as a 4-year-old he finished up with a second to Brando in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest; won the G2 Park S. at Doncaster; and won the G1 Prix de la Foret at his favoured seven-furlong distance. He sire Acclamation and grandsire Royal Applause both came back to show their best form as 4-year-olds, so it’s a family tradition – and a hot sire line, too. Time Test is a beautifully-bred Juddmonte son of Dubawi – Passage of Time, by Dansili, who, when he won the 2015 G3 Tercentenary S. at Royal Ascot, looked a sure-fire Group 1 winner in waiting, but it never quite happened. He won two Group 2’s and another Group 3, and placed in three Group 1’s (highest RPR 124); best distance probably 10 furlongs. Sure to be popular at that price.
Darley’s Barney Roy is yet another good horse sourced by the Doyles at Doncaster (£70,000) for the Hannons, then sold, in this case to Godolphin, for whom he: finished second to Churchill in this year’s G1 English 2000 Guineas; turned the tables on them all when winning the G1 St. James’s Palace S. at Royal Ascot; got beat a nose by Ulysses in the G1 Eclipse; then finished third to Ulysses in the G1 Juddmonte International – the first two at a mile, the second two at 10 furlongs. With that race record (RPR’s 119-122-124-123 in that stretch) he is sensational value at £10,000.
In France, Zarak, by Dubawi out of the superstar racemare Zarkava, retires to the Haras de Bonneval for €12,000, and is certain to be well patronized. He was second twice to Almanzor as a 3-year-old in 2016, in the G1 French Derby (10 1/2f) and G2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano. At four this year he won the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (12f) and ran second to Cloth of Stars in the G1 Prix Ganay. He had proper Group 1 form, and has a sensational pedigree.
The Irish National Stud has two very interesting new recruits in Decorated Knight (€15,000) and National Defense (€12,000). Decorated Knight is by Galileo and is a true three-quarter brother to Gleneagles and all his brothers and sisters, as all are by Galileo and out of full sisters, who are also full sisters to Giant’s Causeway. What a page. Decorated Knight won three Group 1 races this year, including the Tattersalls Gold Cup (10 1/2f) and Irish Champion S. (10f) in Ireland – so they should know him there, all right. National Defense debuts at one-tenth the fee for which his sire, the great Invincible Spirit, now stands; when he won the 2016 G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, National Defense looked like a sure-fire Classic candidate for 2017, but it didn’t happen. Nonetheless he was seriously impressive in the Lagardere and merits consideration for that reason as well as the fact he has been recruited to hopefully succeed his sire at the Irish National Stud.
Galileo Gold is the best horse sired by Paco Boy, a good miler by Green Desert’s son, Desert Style, but who is now in Turkey, and is out of a Galileo mare. Galileo Gold won the 2016 G1 English 2000 Guineas and G1 St. James’s Palace S., which credentials alone could make him a successful sire, as those are two ‘stallion-making’ one-mile races for 3-year-old colts. Galileo Gold was very good; he goes to Tally-Ho, who also have Mehmas from the Al Shaqab organization, for €15,000. Profitable is another son of Invincible Spirit and was really best at five furlongs; he won the G1 King’s Stand S. last year, and was second to Lady Aurelia this year, for Godolphin. He goes to Kildangan for €12,000 and word on the street is that he’s very popular. Finally, the Yeomanstown team which brings you Dark Angel and Gutafain takes a shot with El Kabeir, a son of Scat Daddy from the States. Raced by the Zayat Stable, he looked like a Classic contender at the beginning of his 3-year-old year when he won the G3 Gotham; but he was third to Frosted in the G1 Wood Memorial and, really, nine furlongs was as far as he wanted to go, and he was happier at seven furlongs or a mile. He’ll stand for €8,000, and did I mention he’s by Scat Daddy?
So that’s our list, but as always we’re open to suggestions and Nominations From The Floor, which you should send to firstname.lastname@example.org. And, as always, as Frasier Crane used to say, Thanks for listening.
26 EUROPEAN 'VALUE SIRES and MARKET PICKS' STANDING FOR £15,000/€15,000 & UNDER
Sorted by ST, Age of Oldest Foals
|Sire||Yr||His Sire||1st FLS NH||WW||ST||Farm||2018||2017||2016||2015||2014||2013||2012||Midyear
|SEA THE MOON||2011||SEA THE STARS||2016||2016||ENG||LANWADES||15,000||15,000||15,000||15,000|
|NIGHT OF THUNDER||2011||DUBAWI||2017||2017||ENG||DALHAM HALL||15,000||25,000||30,000|
|BRAZEN BEAU||2011||I AM INVINCIBLE||2017||2017||ENG||DALHAM HALL||7,000||10,000||10,000|
|BARNEY ROY||2014||EXCELEBRATION||2019||2019||ENG||DALHAM HALL||10,000|
|TIME TEST||2012||DUBAWI||2019||2019||ENG||NATIONAL STUD||8,500|
|DREAM AHEAD||2008||DIKTAT||2013||2013||FR||BALLYLINCH; H GRANDCAMP 2017||12,000||12,000||17,500||15,000||15,000||17,500||17,500||1.34||1.1|
|RAJSAMAN||2007||LINAMIX||2014||2014||FR||H DE MONTFORT & PREAUX||8,000||8,000||6,000||4,000||4,000||4,000||0.76||0.28|
|PEDRO THE GREAT||2010||HENRYTHENAVIGATOR||2015||2015||FR||H DE LA HAIE NEUVE||6,000||3,000||3,000||3,000||3,000|
|RELIABLE MAN||2008||DALAKHANI||2015||2015||FR||2018: HARAS D THENNEY : G ROTTGEN||7,000||6,000||6,000||6,000||6,000|
|ANODIN||2010||ANABAA||2016||2016||FR||H DU QUESNAY||6,000||7,500||7,500||7,500|
|OLYMPIC GLORY||2010||CHOISIR||2016||2016||FR||H DE BOUQUETOT||12,000||15,000||15,000||15,000|
|ZARAK||2013||DUBAWI||2019||2019||FR||H DE BINNEVAL||12,000|
|RULER OF THE WORLD||2010||GALILEO||2016||2016||IRE||COOLMORE||8,000||8,000||10,000||15,000|
|HARZAND||2013||SEA THE STARS||2018||2018||IRE||GILLTOWN||15,000||15,000|
|DECORATED KNIGHT||2012||GALILEO||2019||2019||IRE||IRISH NATIONAL STUD||15,000|
|EL KABEIR||2012||SCAT DADDY||2019||2019||IRE||YEOMANSTOWN||8,000|
|GALILEO GOLD||2013||PACO BOY||2019||2019||IRE||TALLY-HO STUD||15,000|
|NATIONAL DEFENSE||2014||INVINCIBLE SPIRIT||2019||2019||IRE||IRISH NATIONAL STUD||12,000|