Bill's Columns

Britain leaves the European Union in March, 2019. Among the zillions of complications which will ensue, we’ll have to figure out whether we can still just call them all ‘European’ thoroughbred sales, or whether we’ll have to start talking about ‘European and British’. That’s not as important, though, as enshrining citizens’ rights or making sure there’s no physical border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

One thing that we won’t have to adjust, though, is currency. Ireland, France, and Germany all sell in Euros and will continue to, while Tattersalls sells in the archaic ‘guinea’ (£1.05, they keep the £.05), while Goffs UK sells in sterling (£). That’s why the tables you see with these articles are displayed in three currencies: Euros, sterling, US dollar. The tables cover all European mixed sales since October 1, but the two most important thus far have been Goffs November and Tattersalls December, which finished December 7. Arqana’s December Sale, which ends on December 12, finishes the Northern Hemisphere auction sales season, which we’ll summarize, including Arqana, in our next article.

Clearly the market in Europe, as in America, is up, which is demonstrated by, if nothing else, the sale of three top race fillies for $8-million or more: Songbird ($9.5-million) and Tepin ($8-million, in foal to Curlin) at Fasig-Tipton in November; and Marsha, who broke the European auction record at 6-million gns. (about $8.5-million) on Tuesday, December 5. American Mandy Pope’s Whisper Hill Farm bought Songbird; the Coolmore partners prevailed on both Tepin and Marsha, both of whom are headed to Galileo.

First question is, how do we measure the market, and this is a tricky question. We calculated revenues in the North American and European yearling market were up 13%, though the average was up by more like 7% as 400 more (an extra 5%) yearlings sold; also, the 2016 yearling market had been off a bit from 2015’s post-recession highs, so, being conservative, we would say the 2017 NA/EU yearling market was up a little under 9% from 2015.

Yearling and weanling sales from year to year tend to be a little more like-to-like, whereas with mare sales, there can be wild variations depending on the composition of the catalogues. In 2016 Unrivaled Belle, at $3.8-million, was the high-priced filly or mare at auction in North America or Europe; this year there were the three already mentioned, plus Stellar Wind (also to Coolmore) for $6-million. Among them Songbird, Tepin, Stellar Wind, and Marsha grossed $32-million. They were just ‘elite elite’ fillies or mares who happened to be offered at auction in 2017, it’s hard to use them as indicators to try and measure market increases.

There were some impressive metrics at Goffs and Tattersalls: Goffs foals up 35% in gross, from €20-million to €27.1-million (possibly partially due to a change to ‘better’ as to which days were at the front); Tattersalls Mares up an amazing 52% - though it’s hard to believe that isn’t primarily catalogue improvement, namely 11 fillies/mares selling for 1-million guineas-plus as opposed to two last year; and finally, the whole December catalogue up 32% - to a new record high of 105,255,500 gns, surpassing the previous 2007 record of 102-million gns and change.

Actually, however, I thought none of those were really the correct description of the market rise. Instead I have added together the foals sold at Goffs and Tattersalls compared to last year, because these are to a much greater extent like-to-like. When we add those together there were 1,473 foals sold between the two sales this year, for a total of 56,553,200 gns (converting Goffs foals from Euros); last year there were 1,440 foals which sold for 48,239,340 gns. That is a 17% gain, which I think is the best approximation of the gain in the European mixed sale market in 2017. That’s a very big gain, roughly double the gain in the combined yearling market.

Dubawi, Galileo, and Frankel were very much the big three in the European yearling market, and they repeated the dose, though with far fewer numbers, at the two mixed sales. Dubawi’s yearlings averaged the equivalent of US$992,678; his only foal to sell at either of the two sales topped the Tattersalls Foal Sale at 750,000 gns (about $1.065-million). Galileo, whose yearling average was $851,841, had three foals sell, all at Goffs, including the European sale-topping foal, for €1.1-million; the three averaged €708,333 (around $831,000). Frankel’s yearlings averaged $658,685; his one foal at Tattersalls brought 375,000 gns (about $532,000). Five mares in foal to Galileo averaged over $1.2-million; Dubawi had one mare in foal bring the equivalent of $1.06-million; and Frankel had six mares in foal average around $678,000.

Nine other sires, including the top three with their first weanlings, had more than five foals sell between the two sales, for an average over $140,000. Shadwell’s Muhaarar, a first-class sprinter by Oasis Dream, had 11 foals average $281,994, good for fourth ranking behind the three superstars. Also among this top nine, with five or more foals selling from their first crops, were Darley’s Golden Horn, the Epsom Derby and Arc winner, whose nine foals averaged $246,949; and the crack miler Gleneagles, Coolmore’s Galileo colt out of Giant’s Causeway’s sister, You’resothrilling ($140,193). Invincible Spirit ($275,612), Dark Angel ($259,506), Oasis Dream ($251,436), Sea The Stars ($168,631), France’s Siyouni ($146,861), and Exceed And Excel ($142,874) were the other sires which had five or more foals average over $140,000.

Besides the three uber-sires, two other covering sires had big individual sales at Tattersalls: a Ballymacoll mare, Angel Vision, brought 600,000 gns (about $849,000) in foal to Invincible Spirit; and the well-bred Baltic Best brought 380,000 gns (about $537,000) as the only mare in the catalogue in foal to Adlerflug’s Group 1-winning son, Ito. Mares in foal to six other sires averaged over $300,000: Lope De Vega ($427,635); Siyouni ($418,510); Kingman ($355,163); Muhaarar ($350,967); Dark Angel ($326,889); and Kodiac ($301,750). Top sires with their first mares in foal, aside from Ito, were: Coolmore’s The Gurkha ($116,684); Derrinstown’s Awtaad ($101,190); Gilltown’s Harzand ($100,913); and Haras de Bouquetot’s Shalaa ($95,249 for three mares in foal, but had another eight catalogued at Arqana).

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Source: Bloodhorse

Sire	Standing Farm	ST	2017 Fee	2016 Fee	1st Crop	Cat	Ring	Sold	S/C	Avg D	Avg P	Avg E	High D
Dubawi (IRE)	Dalham Hall Stud	ENG