Bill's Columns

The first notable 21st-century arrival of Australasian racing and breeding on the international scene was at Royal Ascot in 2003 when Choisir, still a 3-year-old by Southern time and from the second Australian crop by Danehill Dancer, not only won the then-G2 King’s Stand S. on the meet’s opening day (at 25-1, defeating Acclamation), he came back five days later to win the G1 then-Golden (now Diamond) Jubilee, still going off at 13-2 and defeating the filly Airwave, later the granddam of the 4-time Group 1 winner Churchill.

In the ensuing years Australian horses have won each race another three times, the latest (and the first since Black Caviar scraped home in the Diamond Jubilee in 2012) being Merchant Navy, from Fastnet Rock’s 2014 Australian crop, who claimed the 2018 G1 Diamond Jubilee, again a late 3-year-old by Southern time, having been transferred for a successful two-race campaign to Aidan O’Brien. So that makes 8 wins in 32 renewals over 16 years – 25% of the top sprints at Royal Ascot. No wonder they keep coming back.

Though Australia and New Zealand have great racing and breeding traditions, it was really only with the advent of routine dual-hemisphere breeding – especially Danehill, of course – that Australasia started to produce a higher average standard of racehorse – particularly sprinters, up ‘til now. And just as the Yoshida family was able to complete its upgrade to world-class racing in the depression in North American and European racing in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, so Australian breeders, during the World Economic Crash of 2007-09 – from which Australia escaped relatively unscathed – were finally able to start buying ‘first-world’ black-type mares in real quantities. Because of an owner-friendly purse structure which is the envy of every big-scale, year-‘round racing jurisdiction outside of Asia, Australasian racing and breeding, both sectors, have enjoyed a decade-long run of prosperity which culminated in impressive record auction sales in 2018 – nearly A$560-million in yearling sales in 2018 (including New Zealand), according to figures compiled by the Australian publication Bluebloods.

The two most important yearling sales in Australasia are the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale in Queensland, in January, and the Inglis Sydney Easter Yearling Sale in early April. Magic Millions is the highest-grossing sale; in 2018 the entire sale week grossed A$168-million, which climbed another 8%, to A$181-million this year. Last year Sydney Easter (Book 1) averaged A$346,728. But though Magic Millions managed to advance both in gross and average (by 6%, to A$201,194 for all three books), the two subsequent sales have suffered significant drops from their 2018 highs. New Zealand Bloodstock’s Karaka sales series dipped 18% in gross, from NZ$97-million in 2018 to NZ$79-million this year, and 16% in average, from NZ$106,379 to NZ$89,714 (again, all three books). Then Inglis’ Classic Yearling Sale, which in 2018, in their first sale at their new Riverside sales complex in the Sydney suburbs, had shot up by 54% in gross from 2017 (A$36-million to A$55-million, albeit with 33% more horses catalogued, 800 to 600), added another 223 horses, for a total of 1,023 catalogued, yet dropped by 12% in gross (A$55-million to A$49-million), and by 19% in average, from A$81,958 to A$65,992.

A number of factors could be at play here, including some stagnation in the Australian economy and fallout among potential investors to the recent Darren Weir scandal which saw Melbourne’s record-breaking trainer ruled off for four years; according to one investor who is involved in informal partnerships more than formal syndications, the Weir scandal left a bad taste in the mouths of many potential investors who are sensitive to the idea of being involved in a shady business. As far as the Classic Sale (Feb 9-14) itself goes, Inglis’ new Bloodstock Sales General Manager, Sebastian Hutch, made these observations:

“The Classic Sale has grown dramatically in terms of both size and profile in recent years, but given the various industry and economic factors in play, we were very satisfied with the sale as a whole. Meaningful comparative analysis with previous years is relatively difficult given the increase in numbers (up 200 catalogued on 2018 and up 400 on 2017), but there was great diversity to the buying bench and the number of yearlings to make $200,000 or above in 2019 (38) was pretty much in keeping with 2018 (41). To sustain the health of the yearling market, the challenge remains to grow the volume of end users, while also increasing the participation of existing end-users, which is a key focus for us. As is the case with every sale, consideration will be given to areas for potential improvement as we look to optimise the overall experience and the end result for both buyers and sellers.”

At the three principal Australasian sales series so far in 2019, the overall gross is down by 3%, from A$320-million at this point in 2018, to A$309-million this year, which is still 17% higher than the A$263-million in sales at this point in 2017. Total Australasian yearling sales were right at A$500-million in 2017, growing to A$560-million in 2018. Even if the sales land somewhere in the middle this year, it is still a very strong, and internationally significant, marketplace.

Proven sires dominate the Australasian sales. The leader in the clubhouse is 3-time Champion Sire Redoute’s Choice, arguably the very best of Danehill’s sons and himself the sire of two-time Champion Sire (and heading for a third) Snitzel and top ten sire Not A Single Doubt, as well as this season’s top 3-year-old, The Autumn Sun. All three stand at Arrowfield, as will The Autumn Sun. Redoute’s Choice has averaged A$541,038 for 17 yearlings sold so far. Snitzel ranks #5 among sires with more than a couple of yearlings sold, with an average of A$338,839 for 40 yearlings sold; Not A Single Doubt ranks #8, with 38 sold for an A$245,508 average.

Darley’s Medaglia D’Oro, who no longer shuttles, ranks second with an average of A$399,324 for seven yearlings sold, but the runaway number one by yearling gross, and number three by average, is Yarraman Park Stud’s I Am Invincible, who has already had 71 yearlings sell, for a gross of just under A$28-million, and an average of A$394,015. Coolmore’s Fastnet Rock, himself a two-time Champion Sire by Danehill, ranks fourth, with 20 yearlings averaging A$350,531. New Zealand’s four-time Champion Sire, Savabeel (52/$A285,056), is #6, with Widden Stud’s top second-crop sire, Zoustar (58, A$271,428) ranked seventh. After Not A Single Doubt in eighth, Widden’s Sebring (43, A$240,896) and Victoria’s Woodside Park Stud’s Written Tycoon (63, A$240,088) round out the top ten. Darleys stands the current leading freshman sire, I Am Invincible’s son Brazen Beau (21, A$208,619), who is the leading young sire thus far; Coolmore’s Vancouver (42, A$162,270), by Medaglia D’Oro, is the top first-year sire.

In the Northern Hemisphere, we divide the major racing into three regions: North America, Europe, and Japan. In the Southern Hemisphere, we likewise define three regions: Australasia; South America; and South Africa. One thing we’ve discovered, since South Africa is one small country compared to Australasia and South America, is that their stallion population is naturally significantly smaller than the other two regions. Therefore in this short preview we include the top 25 sires (with 200+ year-starters 2012/13 – 2018/19) in the two big regions, just the top ten in South Africa. In a second table we look at sires with under 200 year-starters, mostly young sires.

Starting with Australasia, it’s not a big shock to find there is a high correlation between sires with the highest yearling averages and those with the highest APEX A Runner indices. Sure enough, you’ve just read about the top five: Redoute’s Choice (3.82) and Snitzel (3.53), ahead of I Am Invincible (3.19), Savabeel (3.13), and Fastnet Rock (2.88). Shuttlers Exceed And Excel (2.67), High Chaparral (2.65, died in 2015), and Mastercraftsman (2.45) come next by SH APEX A Runner Index, ahead of Not A Single Doubt (2.41), Sebring (2.30), and Medaglia D’Oro (2.21).

Scat Daddy never went back to Chile after he re-wrote the record books in his initial stint down there, but he covered enough mares Southern time in Kentucky in 2014 that he qualifies for SH APEX ratings in the 2018-19 season. Not surprisingly his 4.81 SH A Runner Index tops the table by a wide margin, over Argentina’s Key Deputy (3.90) and Peru’s Yazamaan (3.77). Then some very familiar American names: Drosselmeyer (3.56) in Brazil; Put It Back (3.22), in both Brazil and Argentina; Lookin At Lucky (3.14), in Chile; Roman Ruler (2.94), in Argentina; and Forestry (2.83), in Argentina and Brazil.

In South Africa, Fort Wood’s son, Dynasty (3.27), tops the list, ahead of Captain Al (2.85), more of a speed sire, by Roberto’s son, Al Mufti; G1 Arlington Million winner Silvano (2.46); American import Trippi (2.36); and the top younger sire, Querari (2.30), by Oasis Dream.

Among the younger sire crops (3-year-olds of 2018-19 the youngest we rate), there are some really exciting prospects in Australia, including three second-crop sires with A Runner indices of 4.00+, namely: Zoustar (4.44), who is now standing his first season up north, at Tweenhills Stud in England; Arrowfield’s Dundeel (4.11), a son of High Chaparral who has had a Derby winner in South Africa and the winner of an A$2-million 2-year-old race in Sydney in the last few weeks; and Darley’s Epaulette (4.00), who also has an Australian-bred Group 1 winner in South Africa. Ranked just behind them is a third-crop sire named Gingerbread Man (3.70), who stands at Yarradale Stud, just outside Perth in Western Australia. He is by Shamardal, was a champion 2-year-old and 3-year-old in Singapore, and coincidentally has 11 yearlings selling in a yearling sale in Perth Feb. 18-19. Two other second-crop sires, Queensland’s Eureka Stud’s Spirit of Boom (2.90) and Darley’s Dawn Approach (2.34), also score well.

In South America, s son of Distorted Humor named Fortify, who was second to Shanghai Bobby in the G1 Hopeful, third to him in G1 Champagne, and fourth, again to Shanghai Bobby in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, has made a tremendous start in Argentina, with 9 A Runners from only 67 year-starters, for a massive 6.71 A Runner Index, and he also has 23 ABC Runners, for a 3.92 ABC Index – meaning over 30% of his runners become ABC Runners. That is sensational. Bloodstock agent John Fulton, who also represents the Breeders’ Cup in South America, tells us that Fortify started out at Haras La Biznaga, but when that farm dispersed their stock last year, Fortify moved to Haras Vacacion. All we can say to them is, we hope you will breed a lot of your very good mares to him, because he has made some kind of sensational start, with five first-crop GSW already. Shanghai Bobby (3.24) himself did very well from his Brazilian crops, but he has now been sold to Japan.