Bill's Columns

The yearling sales season is about to get underway, with no one having a very good idea what’s going to happen. How many Europeans will be physically going to America isn’t clear, nor how many Americans will physically travel to Europe. We’re used to a strong European presence at the American sales, but only recently have American buyers been shopping in Europe, and they’ve had plenty of success, too. On August 15, Chad Brown trained a double for Klaravich Stable at Saratoga with two colts by Kingman bought as yearlings at Tattersalls’ October Sale: the 2-year-old colt Public Sector broke his maiden going 1 1/16m on the turf, and the 3-year-old Domestic Spending won the $500,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational, at 1 3/16m on the turf. And of course Campanelle, the Kodiac filly trained by Wesley Ward for Stonestreet who won the G2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and the G1 Prix Morny at Deauville, was also a Tattersalls graduate.

For those who will either be attending, bidding, or simply following the European yearling sales this year, today we review two crops of European sires, those which have their first 4-year-olds racing this year (first foals 2016, abbreviated F2016), and those with their first 3-year-olds (F2017). Interestingly, the two protagonists of the 2014 G1 English 2000 Guineas top their respective sire crops: Kingman, whose only defeat in eight career starts came when he was mugged by Night of Thunder, with Kieren Fallon up, at 40-1 in the English 2000, is Europe’s leading third-crop sire, while Night of Thunder is the leading second-crop sire. Australia, by the way, who was third in that Guineas, came back in his next two starts to win the G1 Epsom and G1 Irish Derbies, and is the #3-ranked European third-crop sire by progeny earnings.

There are in fact four standout European F2016 sires with their first 4-year-olds this year, each with at least 10 Black-Type Winners (BTW), but the two battling it out for the top spot by cumulative progeny earnings, Kingman and No Nay Never, have each recorded over 20 Black-Type Winners and over $7-million in progeny earnings. Kingman has 23 BTW and 40 Black-Type Horses (BTH), of which 12 are Group SW (GSW) and an impressive 29 are already Group Stakes Horses (GSH). He has two Group 1 winners, the 4-year-old Persian King, winner of last year’s G1 Pris d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) and this year’s G1 Prix d’Ispahan, and the unbeaten 3-year-old Palace Pier, winner of the G1 St. James’s Palace S. and G1 Prix Jacques Le Marois. No Nay Never, a son of Scat Daddy who was another trained by Wesley Ward, won the G2 Norfolk at Royal Ascot and the G1 Morny, and has sired 21 BTW and 33 Black-Type Horses, of which 11 are GSW and 18 GSH, including one Group 1 winner so far, the 2019 G1 July Cup winner Ten Sovereigns.

The next two in the F2016 European pecking order are Australia and Sea The Moon, who won the 2014 G1 German Derby by 11 lengths and was actually favorite for the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe before being beaten at 1 to 2 in the G1 Grosser Preis von Baden, shortly after which he was retired through injury. Australia has sired 12 BTW, of which eight are GSW, and while he doesn’t yet have a G1 winner he has had six runners who are G1-placed. Sea The Moon, with 10 BTW, six of them GSW, got his first G1 winner this year with the crack Niarchos 3-year-old filly Alpine Star. Interestingly, Sea The Moon (3.41) had the highest mid-year APEX A Runner Index of the four, with the others all grouped closely together: Australia (2.60), Kingman (2.50), and No Nay Never (2.37). All four also have ABC indexes (top 8% earners/runners) between 1.69-1.83, roughly 14% of runners.

Ruler of the World, winner of the 2013 G1 Epsom Derby, has a high 3.28 A Runner Index but from only 55 runners, and courtesy of his top-class first-crop filly Iridessa, winner of the G1 Matron S. in Ireland and the 2019 G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Four-time G1 winner Olympic Glory is the only other European F2016 stallion to sire a G1 winner, the now-dual top-level scorer Watch Me. The big improver in this sire crop in the first six months of 2020 is Anodin, who has added four new ‘A Runners’ this year and is now up to a 1.87 A Runner Index.

As mentioned in my August 17 column on North American second-crop sires, leading European second-crop sire Night of Thunder is to his sire Dubawi what top North American second-crop sire Constitution is to Tapit: first top-class sire son. Of the protagonists in the 2014 G1 English 2000 Guineas, Kingman and Australia retired at the end of their 3-year-old years, whereas Night of Thunder stayed in training at four, adding the G1 Lockinge S. to his CV. At stud Night of Thunder has now sired 14 BTW and 19 BTH, far outdistancing his European contemporaries in both departments. These include eight GSW and 11 GSH, including G2 Dante S. winner Thunderous.

In fact, Dubawi scores a 1-2 among European second-crop sires, as #2 by progeny earnings is the 2015 G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) winner Make Believe, who is by Dubawi’s son, Makfi. Make Believe stood for €12,000 this year, and though he’ll surely receive a healthy price bump for 2021, he’s unlikely to be priced out of the reach of mid-range breeders, so figures to be a real value buy next year, considering his first crop includes G1 Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) winner Mishriff, who has recently added the G2 Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville to his portfolio, and is due to remain at 10 furlongs, with his announced autumn target the G1 British Champion S. Make Believe also has two G3-winning fillies in his first crop, and with a 2.54 APEX A Runner Index he and Night of Thunder (3.04) are the only two European F2017 sires with 50+ runners and A Runner indexes over 2.00. Small-crop French sire Galiway, who hails from the same French farm, Haras de Colleville, as Kendargent and his #2-ranked 2020 European freshman sire son, Goken, has three BTW among his just 10 winners from 25 runners, so has a 3.23 A Runner Index himself.

Second to Night of Thunder in most of the black-type categories, and third by cumulative progeny earnings is Gleneagles, by Galileo out of a 2-year-old G2-winning full sister to Giant’s Causeway. He crossed the line first in eight consecutive races at two and three, but was controversially disqualified to third after winning the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardare to close out his 2-year-old season. Among his string of wins he had won the G1 National S. before the Lagardare, and in his first three races at three in 2015 he won the G1 English 2000 Guineas, the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas, and the G1 St. James’s Palace S. at Royal Ascot. Gleneagles has now sired six BTW and 11 BTH, of which seven are GSH and include G2-winning 2019 two-year-olds Royal Dornach and Royal Lytham.

Cable Bay, winner of the 7-furlong G2 Challenge S. at Newmarket as a 4-year-old, and 2015 G1 Epsom Derby and G1 ‘Arc’ winner Golden Horn operated at opposite ends of the distance spectrum, but each now has eight Black-type Horses. Cable Bay, ranked #4 mong this group by cumulative progeny earnings, has only one BTW, but that is the speedy 5-furlong 3-year-old filly Liberty Beach, winner of the G3 Molecomb last year over colts, and third this term to the mighty Battaash in Royal Ascot’s G1 King’s Stand S. Golden Horn, now with three BTW, checks in #6 by cumulative progeny earnings, with Dark Angel’s son Gutaifan, whose first GSW is the 2-year-old filly Fev Rover, recent winner of the G3 Prix du Calvados at Deauville, in fifth spot. The other sire of a Group 1 horse in this crop, besides so far Make Believe, Gleneagles, and Cable Bay, is Free Eagle, sire of G1 Epsom Derby second Khalifa Sat.

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Worldwide Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter @billoppenheim