Bill's Columns

One of the most important points to emerge about North American and European second-crop sires of 2020 (first foals 2017, denoted F2017) is the emergence of the first really good sire sons of Dubawi, in Europe, and Tapit, in North America. Europe’s Dubawi is the sire of leading European second-crop sire Night of Thunder, who stands at Darley’s Kildangan Stud in Ireland, and in fact Dubawi’s grandson, Ballylinch Stud’s Make Believe, by Makfi, is also among Europe’s top four second-crop sires, as he’s the sire of 2020 G1 Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) winner Mishriff, who also scored in the August 15 G2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville. So the Dubawi sire line is now getting traction in Europe.

It’s a similar story for Tapit in North America. WinStar’s Constitution is North America’s leading second-crop sire (by $1,000, as of August 13, over Ashford’s 2015 Triple Crown winner, American Pharoah), including now three-time G1 winner Tiz The Law (Florida Derby, Belmont S., Travers S.), the prohibitive favorite for the 2020 G1 Kentucky Derby, scheduled for September 5. Tapit also has two other sons in the second-crop top ten by progeny earnings: Darby Dan’s #3-ranked Tapiture (the leading sire of winners at this juncture, with 58, with Constitution and American Pharoah at 54 each); and Lane’s End’s #7-ranked Tonalist, the 2014 G1 Belmont S. winner.

Constitution and American Pharoah have quite different profiles, yet they couldn’t be any more closely matched for the top two spots among North American second-crop sires. One thing they did have in common was they both went through Fasig-Tipton’s Saratoga yearling sale. Constitution was a $400,000 purchase by Twin Creeks Racing in 2012, while American Pharoah was a $300,000 buy-back for breeder Zayat Stables in 2013. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Constitution won four of his eight starts at three and four, scoring two G1 wins at Gulfstream Park, the Florida Derby as a 3-year-old, and the Donn H. (now the Pegasus) at four. He retired to WinStar for $25,000 in 2016, and dropped to $15,000 in 2019, before he had his first runners. American Pharoah, of course, was the first Triple Crown winner since 1978, and has always been a six-figure sire.

With 130 starters compared to Constitution’s 102, American Pharoah leads Constitution in five of the six black-type categories listed herein: he has 10 Black-Type Winners, 21 Black-Type Horses, six Group SW, 15 Group Stakes Horses, of which three are G1-placed. Constitution has six BTW, 14 BTH, five GSW, 10 GSH, and two G1-placed; but he also has that all-important G1 winner, Tiz The Law, the top North American 3-year-old colt of 2020, so leads ‘Pharoah’ by G1 winners, one to zero. American Pharoah has a slightly higher APEX A Runner Index, 3.24 to 3.06, but the fact both are above 3.00 shows how highly they rate: only ‘Top Ten’ sires have A Runner indexes above 3.00. Significantly, through August 2, 82% of American Pharoah’s stakes wins had been on the grass, compared to 33% for Constitution.

Tapiture, as noted, is the leading North American second-crop sire by winners (58), and is narrowly #3 by progeny earnings, including 13 Black-Type Horses, over Lane’s End’s Liam’s Map, who of course had the two G1-winning 2-year-olds in his first crop last year. Journeyman Stud’s Khozan, who has 11 BTH himself, ranks fifth, ahead of Three Chimneys’ Palace Malice. Then Tonalist, Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Bayern, WinStar’s Carpe Diem, and Ashford’s Competitive Edge are all grouped together, just ahead of Airdrie’s Summer Front (third among the sire crop with three GSW), Lane’s End’s Honor Code, and WinStar’s former inmate, Daredevil, sire of Swiss Skydiver. After her win in the August 15 G1 Alabama S., worth $275,000 to the winner, he will actually leapfrog about half of these into seventh place, with a little over $2.7-million in progeny earnings.

Of course there are other ways to measure sire success besides progeny earnings, including the APEX A Runner ratings which I use, which measure the frequency with which stallions sire runners who figure among the top 2% of earners from all starters. As mentioned both American Pharoah (3.24) and Constitution (3.06) are the top second-crop sires by this measure as well. Other sires who score well by A Runner Index at this stage include Khozan (2.36), Liam’s Map (2.23), Karakontie (2.00), Commissioner (1.85), Fast Anna (1.74), and Summer Front, who had a 1.44 A Runner Index through July 12, when The Jockey Club Information Systems (TJCIS) did the calculations but a week later had the filly Speaktomeofsummer win the G2 Lake Placid at Saratoga, which raises his index to approximately 1.92.

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Worldwide Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter @billoppenheim