Bill's Columns

The G1 Kentucky Derby was run on the first Saturday in May 25 times between 1991-2015. Of the 25 winners, five did not have, or haven’t yet had, stud careers: Funny Cide (2003) and Mine That Bird (2009) were geldings; Barbaro (2006) died; War Emblem (2002) was infertile; and California Chrome (2014) has his first runners this year.

Of the 20 who have, or are having, significant stud careers: exactly two (10%), Street Sense (2007) and American Pharoah (2015) are the only two who actually are, or on their way to being, really successful sires and both of them, by the way, had other unique credentials, Street Sense becoming the first horse to complete the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – G1 Kentucky Derby double (the second: F2018 Nyquist, which could be a boost to his chances), and American Pharoah, of course, the first Triple Crown winner since 1978 (the second: Justify, ditto). Let me read you a list of the other 18 Derby winners since 1991: Strike the Gold, Lil E Tee, Sea Hero, Go For Gin, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos, Smarty Jones, Giacomo, Big Brown, Super Saver, Animal Kingdom, I’ll Have Another, and Orb. Winning the Kentucky Derby may be the Holy Grail for racehorse owners and fans, but for breeders looking for the next top sire, betting on the winner of the Kentucky Derby to make a top sire is a risky proposition. Recent history suggests more top sires come from horses who run in the first three in one or more of the six key 9-furlong Derby preps.

We looked at the race records of 26 of the best sires in North America with first foals 1998-2013 who raced on dirt in North America, and what, if anything, they did as spring 3-year-olds, in the ‘Classic’ season. We found they fit into one of three distinct categories. Seven of them (27%) did not run a race as far as 9 furlongs at all before the fall of their 3-year-old year, and only one (Distorted Humor) did that, running second in the G2 Fayette in October. The other top sires who never ran as far as 9 furlongs as 3-year-olds: Elusive Quality, Malibu Moon, Speightstown, Ghostzapper, War Front, and Into Mischief.

There were also 7/26 top sires (27%) who ‘got good’ or hit their peaks either as ‘later’ (summer on) 3-year-olds or 4-year-olds. Two of those, Ghostzapper and War Front, were also <9-furlong 3-year-olds; the others are Smart Strike, Awesome Again, Arch, Lemon Drop Kid, and Tiznow. So, of the 26 top sires we identified, nearly half (12/26, or 46%) had no or little significant Classic form as spring 3-year-olds; only one, Lemon Drop Kid (9th), even ran in the Derby.

Also worth noting for these 26 top sires is their form as 2-year-olds. Exactly half (13/26) ran no more than once as 2-year-olds, so clearly 2-year-old form is not a necessary condition for future sire success. But of the 13 which did run more than once at two, seven of those 13 were Graded Race winners, and five were G1 winners (Unbridled’s Song, Scat Daddy, Street Sense, Into Mischief, and Uncle Mo). So they don’t even have to have run as 2-year-olds, but on the other hand being a G1-winning 2-year-old can be a good indicator – though in four of those five cases, they also qualified through their spring 3-year-old form as well.

So, 14/26 top sires (54%) did have spring 3-year-old form, which is thus the biggest but by no means the only group which produces future top sires. Of these 14 sires, 10 ran in the Kentucky Derby, of which one (Street Sense) won, and another seven finished second, third, fourth, or fifth – so running 2nd-5th in the Kentucky Derby is not a bad indicator of future sire stardom. But all 10 who ran in the Kentucky Derby, plus two who didn’t, also had one other credential on their racing CV which looks like the better pointer: of the 14 future top sires with spring 3-year-old form, 12 of the 14 won (eight) or finished in the first three (another four) in one of the six key 9-furlong Derby preps. These are: the Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, and Arkansas Derby. The first three in those races are a better source of future star sires than the Kentucky Derby itself, and in fact, of the 14 top sires with spring 3-year-old form, the only two who didn’t win or place in one of the six 9-furlong preps were Darley’s Street Cry, who was sent to Dubai after running third in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; and the same firm’s Bernardini, who won the G3 Withers the week before the Derby, but skipped the Derby and won the G1 Preakness when Barbaro sadly broke down. Here are the relevant details on the other 12 (arranged by the year their first crops were foaled):

12 Top Sires with US Spring 3-year-old Form:

• F1998 Unbridled’s Song: G1W at 2; 1st Florida Derby, 1st Wood, 5th Kentucky Derby
• F1999 Pulpit: 2nd Florida Derby, 1st Blue Grass, 4th Kentucky Derby
• F2002 More Than Ready: 2nd Louisiana Derby, 2nd Blue Grass, 4th Kentucky Derby
• F2005 Empire Maker: 1st Florida Derby, 1st Wood, 2nd Kentucky Derby
• F2006 Medaglia D’Oro: 2nd Wood, 4th Kentucky Derby
• F2006 Tapit: 1st Wood, 9th Kentucky Derby
• F2009 Scat Daddy: G1W at 2; 1st Florida Derby, 18th Kentucky Derby
• F2009 Street Sense: G1W at 2; 2nd Blue Grass, 1st Kentucky Derby
• F2010 Curlin: 1st Arkansas Derby, 3rd Kentucky Derby
• F2011 Pioneerof The Nile: 1st Santa Anita Derby, 2nd Kentucky Derby
• F2012 Quality Road: 1st Florida Derby, missed Kentucky Derby
• F2013 Uncle Mo: G1W at 2; 3rd Wood, missed Kentucky Derby

The placement of this year’s G1 Kentucky Derby at the beginning of September won’t disqualify the winner (or even the first five) from future sire success, since we know 27% (7/26) of future top sires didn’t show their best form until at least the summer of their 3-year-old seasons. But what is happening is only three of the traditional six key 9-furlong preps will be run by the originally scheduled May 2 date of the Kentucky Derby: the G2 Louisiana Derby, run on March 21; the G1 Florida Derby, March 28; and the G1 Arkansas Derby, now scheduled for May 2. The Wood and the Blue Grass have been lost. All the previous G2 and G3 preps have been at 8 ½ furlongs or shorter (except for Fair Grounds’ G2 Risen Star, run in two divisions at 9 furlongs this year), which do not have the same success as the 9-furlong preps in predicting future top sires.

Everybody has their list of top Derby prospects, which at this point this year I prefer to call “top spring 3-year-olds”. I have 17 on my list (see attached table); five are trained by Bob Baffert, of which two, Nadal and Charlatan are pointing for the Arkansas Derby. Pending that race, and hoping there is a rescheduled G1 Santa Anita Derby, none of Baffert’s 3-year-olds have yet won or placed in a key 9-furlong prep. Of the remaining 12 on my short list, just three (races in bold) have qualified for ‘future sire success’: G1 Florida Derby winner Tiz The Law (Constitution) and third, Ete Indien (Summer Front) – note both from their sires’ first crops – and G2 Louisiana Derby winner Wells Bayou (Lookin At Lucky), one of four on this list of 12 looking to establish or add to their credentials in the Arkansas Derby. I’m maybe taking a chance by only including Louisiana Derby second and third Ny Traffic (Cross Traffic) and `Modernist (Uncle Mo) on my “bubble’ list, so they’re also both worth keeping a wether eye on.

It’s obviously difficult to know what we’ll eventually be able to make of this 3-year-old crop, how, and when. But from the point of view of breeders, who need to be able to apply historical results and trends to today’s circumstances, the results of these key 9-furlong preps, including the Arkansas Derby and a potential G1 Santa Anita Derby, may prove to be as, if not more, relevant in the future than what eventually transpires as North American’s 2020 program for 3-year-olds. We do already have a few clues.

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Worldwide Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter @billoppenheim