Bill's Columns

There were sighs of relief all round from the thoroughbred commercial market’s community, though the raw figures (updated from the sales company website on March 19) showed a 37% drop in gross and 35% drop in average from the 2019 sale. At that point OBS reported 299 sold (43.9% of those catalogued and 61.6% of those sent through the ring) for a gross of $28,030,500, and a revised average of $93,747. The corresponding figures for 2019 were 306 sold (53.0% of the catalogue) for $44,248,500, an average of $144,603.

Not that we’re likely to have many opportunities to test any theories about the marketplace in the near future, but it may be that the March declines were not entirely due to external forces; OBS’s much bigger April sale has been gaining in market share at the expense of the March sale for the last couple of years anyway. In 2017, the March sale grossed $56.6-million and averaged $188,757- double this year’s figures - for 300 horses sold – and totalled 48% of the combined March-April revenues. In 2018 and 2019 March totalled 38% of the combined gross as the March gross dropped by $12-million and April increased by $12-million.

In what is a limited sample of right around 300 horses, as Eric Mitchell detailed in the Friday, March 20 Blood-Horse Daily (pp. 11-12), six sires with three or more juveniles sold averaged over $200,000: Medaglia D’Oro (3/$366,667), American Pharoah (4/$335,000), Into Mischief (5/$262,000), top freshman sire Upstart (6/$260,833), and Tapit sons Constitituion (4/$226,250) and Tapizar (3/$209,333), with Union Rags (3/$195,000) and Claiborne’s freshman sire, Runhappy (3/$190,333) hot on their heels. Five other freshman sires recorded six-figure averages with three or more sold: Ashford’s Air Force Blue (4/$145,500); WinStar’s Outwork (5/$142,800) and Speightster (6/$114,500); Darley’s Frosted (5/$140,000); and Taylor Made’s Not This Time (5/$103,600). Unfortunately it looks like there will be some delay before we have the opportunity to gather further evidence but buyers and sellers alike were relieved they were able to get at least some business done.

UNDER THE RADAR: 4TH-CROP SIRE PAYNTER

It’s not easy for sires to keep their spots on the Kentucky stallion roster. The top ten North American sires who went to stud in 2014 (first foals 2015, first 5-year-olds 2020) by cumulative progeny earnings all started off in Kentucky, but only five of the ten still stand there. Interestingly, four of the five – New Year’s Day (via Brazil), Declaration of War, Shanghai Bobby, and Animal Kingdom – are in Japan; Flat Out has gone to Oklahoma.

Of those which remain, only Violence, #2 by cumulative progeny earnings to New Year’s Day, sire of course of Maximum Security, stands for more than $20,000, and only Declaration of War has more than one Grade 1 or Group 1 winner. Take Charge Indy, #3 by cumulative progeny earnings, was justifiably repatriated from South Korea by WinStar, and stands for $17,500; but it is another WinStar stallion, #4-ranked Paynter, whose name keeps popping up on the scoresheets, to the point where he is looking exceptionally good value at his current $10,000 stud fee.

Paynter was a $325,000 yearling trained by Bob Baffert for the Zayat stable, and was a front-running two-turn 3-year-old in 2012, when he set the pace and ran a neck second to Union Rags in the G1 Belmont S. and kicked clear off a contested pace to win the G1 Haskell. By Ghostzapper’s sire Awesome Again out of a full sister to Tiznow, Paynter went to stud at WinStar and stood his first two seasons for $25,000, then the next two for $20,000, and registered over 340 named foals in his first four crops. Unfortunately he ran only 9th in the 2017 Freshman Sire stakes, and dropped to $12,500 for 2018, resulting in only 23 foals in 2019, yearlings of 2020 – so even if we have sales there won’t be many yearlings by Paynter being offered.

Meanwhile, things started to improve for Paynter. He finished #3 on the 2018 second-crop sire list, behind Violence and Take Charge Indy, including the G1-winning 2-year-old, Knicks Go. In 2019, when he covered 97 mares at $12,500, he was #3 third-crop sire, behind Take Charge Indy and Declaration of War, with four Black-Type Winners, 12 Black-Type Horses, 2019 earners of $6-million, and he finished 2019 with a very respectable 1.71 APEX A Runner Index, the highest among F2015 sires still standing in North America. In 2020 he is the #2 North American fourth-crop sire behind only New Year’s Day and already has four BTW and seven BTH, including the 3-year-old fillies Queen of God, winner of the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park, and Ring Leader, winner of the Dixie Belle S. at Oaklawn Park.

Verdict: after blowing the start, Paynter has consistently notched up very respectable figures for a $10,000 stallion. For breeders who still have a mare seeking a mate he is exceptionally good value right now. In my opinion.

For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Worldwide Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com. Twitter @billoppenheim