Bill's Columns

Wednesday’s closing session of Keeneland September Book 1, in which 124 yearlings grossed $65,086,000 and averaged $524,855, was the strongest yearling sale session I’ve seen in at least the last ten years – even without the $8.2-million American Pharoah half-sister to Beholder, Into Mischief, and Mendelssohn the session would have averaged over $462,000.

For the entire three-day Book 1, 340 yearlings sold (59.7% of the 569 catalogued) for a total of $160,463,000, and averaged a whopping $471,950. Twenty yearlings broke the seven-figure barrier to sell for $1-million or more, and nine stallions with four or more sold in Book 1 averaged over $500,000.

I’ve been reporting on and projecting prices at Keeneland auctions for more than 35 years, but it’s almost impossible to predict, after Keeneland Book 1, whether the entire 2019 Keeneland September sale can match or even exceed last year’s $377-million total. In 2018, after a 4-day Book 1, 596 yearlings had grossed $216,873,000 and averaged $363,780. The fifth session in 2018 (Book 2, Day 1) grossed $51,049,700 and averaged $179,752, which means last year’s first five sessions saw 880 yearlings (62.7% of 1,402 catalogued) gross $267,862,700 and average $304,389. There are 1,299 yearlings catalogued in the first five sessions this year (a decline of 7% catalogued from last year’s first five sessions). This year’s Book 2 on Friday, Sept. 13 and Saturday, Sept. 14, would have to gross $107,400,000 to equal last year’s 5-day total. That seems unlikely, but we know for sure this is one strong market; we’ll have a much better idea how the numbers compare with last year after Saturday’s session.

The top eight sires by average in Book 1 each had at least one million-dollar yearling. Of the sires with four or more sold in Book 1, Medaglia D’Oro had the highest average, with 16 yearlings averaging $739,062 (4 @ $1m+), ahead of Curlin, who had 27 yearlings average $697,222 (5 @ $1m+). Three more sires averaged $600,000+: American Pharoah (26 sold in Book 1, average $675,577, 2 @ $1m+); Tapit (16/$649,062/2); and War Front (12/$646,250/2). Also with 7-figure yearlings in Book 1 were: Union Rags (5/$605,000/1), Pioneerof The Nile (17/$565,000/3), and Empire Maker (11/$545,455/1), while Flatter also averaged $500,000, with four sold. A really interesting point about the sires with 7-figure yearlings is that three of the eight represent three generations of the Unbridled/Fappiano sire line: #8 Empire Maker sired #7 Pionewerof The Nile, sired #3 American Pharoah.

For the sales season overall, as of this writing Curlin averages $734,459 to lead Medaglia D’Oro ($734,091) by a whisker, with Tapit ($642,143), War Front ($635,000), and American Pharoah ($618,128) rounding out the top five. Pioneerof The Nile has averaged $508,200 with 25 sold; his sire Empire Maker has had 15 yearlings sell so far this season for a $475,667 average, ahead of Union Rags (8/$464,375), Into Mischief (40/$461,565), Uncle Mo (34/$411,617), and Quality Road (27/$411,481, off a $35,000 stud fee).

Three first-year sires have dominated proceedings so far: Claiborne’s Runhappy tops that table with eight Book 1 yearlings averaging $462,500 (19 overall/$329,526), followed by the Darley duo of Nyquist, whose seven Book 1 yearlings averaged $345,714 (19/$298,158 overall) and Frosted, whose 12 Book 1 yearlings sold averaged $343,333 (27/$303,333 overall).

Of the sires with fewer than four sold in Book 1, Lane’s End’s Twirling Candy scored a $950,000 yearling with his only Book 1 yearling sold. Europe’s two top commercial sires had two sell each: Dubawi’s two averaged $600,000, Galileo’s two averaged $430,000. Distorted Humor had three average $413,333.

Of course, the sale’s high-priced yearling, the $8.2-million American Pharoah half-sister to Beholder, Into Mischief and Mendelssohn bought by Mandy Pope, propelled Fred and Nancy Mitchell’s Clarkland Farm into the position of Book 1’s leading consignor by average (just $4,450,000 for two sold, as their Into Mischief colt out of Hot Stones sold for $700,000 to Shadwell). Second on average in Book 1 was Paris’s Hinkle Farms, which had five sold from five catalogued for an average of $1,010,000, including the $2.5-million half-brother to Nyquist, to Godolphin, and a $1,050,000 Curlin colt to Shadwell. Whatever else happened on the sales grounds this week, there were zero consignors who begrudged these two relatively small operations their successes. Like many others whose hard graft brought good dividends this week, they sell their own horses and their fellow consignors applaud them being rewarded by the top operations paying big money for their stock.