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Bill's Columns

GULFSTREAM 2-YEAR-OLDS: HOME RUN OR WHIFF

Date:
This article originally appeared in BloodHorse Daily on April 1st, 2019 .
By Bill Oppenheim
Everything about the thoroughbred business is a pretty high-risk gamble, we know that; but of those who invest in the breeding and auction sales sector of the business, pinhooking 2-year-olds must be about the highest-risk gamble of all. At the March 27 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream 2-Year-Old in Training Sale, fewer than one-third of the horses catalogued (59 of 187, 31.6%) were listed as sold; but those 59 which did sell grossed $29,115,000 – a 24% rise from 2018 – and averaged a spectacular $493,475, an increase of 28% over last year’s sale.
In the inaugural Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old sale at Gulfstream, in 2015, 89 two-year-olds, 50.9% of the 175 catalogued, grossed $20,095,500, and averaged $225,792. Since then the gross has increased by 45% and the average has more than doubled – but the number sold is down by 34%, and the clearance rate from the catalogue is down by 38%. Boyd Browning and his team at Fasig-Tipton have once again done a great job of catering to the very top of the market, but they’d be the first to concede it’s a very small market.
The same year, 2015, when Fasig-Tipton moved to Gulfstream, the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Co. expanded its March 2-year-old sale from one to two days of 300 horses catalogued per day, so to a sale where roughly 600 two-year-olds were catalogued. In 2015, OBS March saw 326 horses sold for $55,432,000, an average of $170,037. This year 313 sold for $44,718,500, a drop of 19% from 2015 (though 6% higher than last year), and averaged $142,871, which is 16% lower than the 2015 average.
OBS sold 56 more two-year-olds in March than last year, a near-10% improvement in the clearance rate from the catalogue, from 44.9% to 54.2%, so the two sales combined had 372 juveniles sell, 17% more than in 2018. The gross for the two sales totalled $73,833,500, a 12% gain from last year, while the combined average dipped by 4%, from $206,824 to $198,477.
Of course the biggest 2-year-old in training sale is the OBS April Sale, scheduled for April 23-26, which catalogues over 1,200 horses, of which they’ll be hoping to sell around 700 of them, gross $70-million, and average $100,000. Last year there were 1,222 catalogued to OBS April, of which 698 sold (57.1% of the catalogue), averaging $98,474. That is by far the biggest single two-year-old sale – about 30% of the entire North American/European two-year-old auction marketplace – so at least as much as the boutique Gulfstream sale, OBS April will tell us a lot about the health of the broader market for 2-year-olds in training. But what the Gulfstream sale did tell us is that there is still plenty of competition, and very if not astronomically strong competition at the top.
Out of 372 horses sold there were a total of 21 sires which had three or more sell and average $200,000+ according to a table first published under Eric Mitchell’s byline in the March 29 edition of Blood-Horse Daily (p. 22). Nine of the 21 are first-year sires, headed of course by Ashford’s American Pharoah, whose eight 2-year-olds to sell so far have averaged $610,625. Darby Dan’s Sky Kingdom, a dual G3 winner at 1 1/2m by Empire Maker, had a blockbuster $875,000 colt catapult his average to $335,667. The same firm’s Tapiture had four for an average of $285,000 at OBS March. WinStar’s Carpe Diem comes next, with an average of $261,667 for six sold.
With the $3,650,000 saletopper Curlin of course leads all sires on average with three or more sold, the average standing at $1,671,667. Tapit – who is having a scorching strong season – has had three average $933,333, while Medaglia D’Oro has three averaging $783,333. American Pharoah ranks fourth among all sires, while rounding out the top five is Into Mischief, who had eleven 2-year-olds average $516,818. Since he has been having crops averaging 140 horses rather than 35, like he started with, Into Mischief has proven a remarkably consistent top-class sire, both on the racetrack and at the sales.
For more articles by Bill Oppenheim, APEX ratings, and Brianne Stanley’s Weekly Sales Ticker, please visit www.billoppenheim.com
SIRES OF OBS MARCH & FT GULFSTREAM 2YO's AVG $200K+
Sire YOB His Sire 1st Fls Cat Ring Sold US$ Gross US$ Avg € Avg £ Avg
Curlin 2004 Smart Strike 2010 6 3 3 5,015,000 1,671,667 1,483,722 1,265,910
Tapit 2001 Pulpit 2006 7 4 3 2,800,000 933,333 829,535 708,938
Pioneerof the Nile 2006 Empire Maker 2011 4 2 2 1,650,000 825,000 733,269 626,686
Medaglia d'Oro 1999 El Prado (IRE) 2006 7 3 3 2,350,000 783,333 694,583 596,118
American Pharoah 2012 Pioneerof the Nile 2017 19 14 8 4,885,000 610,625 542,051 463,211
Bernardini 2003 A.P. Indy 2008 9 3 2 1,115,000 557,500 495,776 423,987
No Nay Never 2011 Scat Daddy 2016 1 1 1 525,000 525,000 466,874 399,270
Into Mischief 2005 Harlan's Holiday 2010 30 16 11 5,685,000 516,818 458,669 392,433
Speightstown 1998 Gone West 2006 6 4 2 1,025,000 512,500 455,433 389,148
Lemon Drop Kid 1996 Kingmambo 2002 5 3 2 875,000 437,500 388,239 333,775
Blame 2006 Arch 2012 5 2 2 800,000 400,000 354,933 303,278
More Than Ready 1997 Southern Halo 2002 6 2 1 390,000 390,000 345,469 298,325
Ghostzapper 2000 Awesome Again 2007 8 3 3 1,050,000 350,000 310,469 265,801
Uncle Mo 2008 Indian Charlie 2013 24 18 12 4,080,000 340,000 301,724 258,294
Sky Kingdom 2009 Empire Maker 2017 6 4 3 1,007,000 335,667 297,844 254,516
Tale of the Cat 1994 Storm Cat 2000 2 2 1 325,000 325,000 287,891 248,604
Discreet Cat 2003 Forestry 2009 3 2 2 620,000 310,000 274,768 236,920
Candy Ride (ARG) 1999 Ride the Rails 2006 9 6 5 1,449,000 289,800 257,542 220,123
Tapiture 2011 Tapit 2017 9 7 4 1,140,000 285,000 253,034 217,272
Super Saver 2007 Maria's Mon 2012 7 3 3 820,000 273,333 242,332 208,817
Majestic City 2009 City Zip 2017 2 1 1 270,000 270,000 240,107 205,339
Malibu Moon 1997 A.P. Indy 2001 15 9 6 1,580,000 263,333 233,690 200,205
Carpe Diem 2012 Giant's Causeway 2017 15 8 6 1,570,000 261,667 232,415 198,763
Include 1997 Broad Brush 2004 1 1 1 250,000 250,000 222,321 190,129
City Zip 1998 Carson City 2003 10 5 5 1,205,000 241,000 214,021 182,723
Flatter 1999 A.P. Indy 2005 8 6 5 1,190,000 238,000 211,128 181,091
Palace Malice 2010 Curlin 2017 14 7 6 1,390,000 231,667 205,344 176,998
The Big Beast 2011 Yes It's True 2017 8 7 7 1,582,000 226,000 200,253 172,723
Constitution 2011 Tapit 2017 12 9 7 1,542,000 220,286 195,442 167,521
Verrazano 2010 More Than Ready 2016 8 5 5 1,095,000 219,000 194,378 166,261
Prospective 2009 Malibu Moon 2015 1 1 1 210,000 210,000 186,022 160,636
Karakontie (JPN) 2011 Bernstein 2017 3 3 3 615,000 205,000 182,188 156,053
Tonalist 2011 Tapit 2017 6 6 4 800,000 200,000 177,423 151,832
SIRES OF OBS MARCH & FT GULFSTREAM 2YO's AVG <$200K, Alphabetically
Sire YOB His Sire 1st Fls Cat Ring Sold US$ Gross US$ Avg € Avg £ Avg
Adios Charlie 2008 Indian Charlie 2013 2 1 1 20,000 20,000 17,786 15,210
Algorithms 2009 Bernardini 2014 4 4 3 400,000 133,333 118,173 101,910
Alpha 2009 Bernardini 2016 3 2 1 18,000 18,000 16,007 13,689
Amira's Prince (IRE) 2009 Teofilo (IRE) 2017 1 1 1 40,000 40,000 35,433 30,597
Animal Kingdom 2008 Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) 2015 1 1 1 45,000 45,000 39,862 34,422
Bayern 2011 Offlee Wild 2017 13 10 6 1,067,000 177,833 157,701 135,261
Bellamy Road 2002 Concerto 2008 4 3 3 58,000 19,333 17,181 14,718
Big Brown 2005 Boundary 2010 1 1 1 40,000 40,000 35,433 30,597
Big Drama 2006 Montbrook 2013 2 1 1 30,000 30,000 26,679 22,815
Bodemeister 2009 Empire Maker 2014 7 4 3 185,000 61,667 54,805 46,943
Brethren 2008 Distorted Humor 2015 1 1 1 60,000 60,000 53,357 45,631
Broken Vow 1997 Unbridled 2003 2 2 1 16,000 16,000 14,229 12,168
Cairo Prince 2011 Pioneerof the Nile 2016 14 10 6 663,000 110,500 98,020 84,075
Can the Man 2011 Into Mischief 2016 2 1 1 4,000 4,000 3,543 3,060
Central Banker 2010 Speightstown 2016 4 2 1 47,000 47,000 41,633 35,952
Chitu 2011 Henny Hughes 2017 5 4 3 120,000 40,000 35,502 30,509
Colonel John 2005 Tiznow 2011 2 2 2 75,000 37,500 33,218 28,685
Commissioner 2011 A.P. Indy 2017 9 6 5 995,000 199,000 176,399 152,067
Competitive Edge 2012 Super Saver 2017 16 14 11 1,037,000 94,273 83,645 71,788
Creative Cause 2009 Giant's Causeway 2014 3 1 1 32,000 32,000 28,457 24,336
Cross Traffic 2009 Unbridled's Song 2016 1 1 1 92,500 92,500 82,259 70,348
Danza 2011 Street Boss 2017 2 2 1 50,000 50,000 44,291 38,247
Daredevil 2012 More Than Ready 2017 9 6 5 304,000 60,800 53,983 46,349
Data Link 2008 War Front 2015 1 1 1 20,000 20,000 17,786 15,210
Declaration of War 2009 War Front 2015 8 4 2 57,000 28,500 25,345 21,675
Distorted Humor 1993 Forty Niner 2000 5 5 2 196,000 98,000 87,150 74,530
Emcee 2008 Unbridled's Song 2015 4 4 4 78,000 19,500 17,332 14,841
Empire Maker 2000 Unbridled 2005 4 3 3 425,000 141,667 125,751 107,668
Fast Anna 2011 Medaglia d'Oro 2017 6 4 4 687,000 171,750 152,167 131,342
Fed Biz 2009 Giant's Causeway 2016 6 3 3 107,000 35,667 31,617 27,253
First Dude 2007 Stephen Got Even 2013 5 3 1 100,000 100,000 88,928 76,051
First Samurai 2003 Giant's Causeway 2008 4 3 3 117,000 39,000 34,659 29,690
Forty Tales 2010 Tale of the Cat 2015 2 1 1 80,000 80,000 70,865 61,195
Freud 1998 Storm Cat 2003 2 1 1 130,000 130,000 115,156 99,442
Friend Or Foe 2007 Friends Lake 2014 1 1 1 10,000 10,000 8,893 7,605
Fury Kapcori 2010 Tiznow 2017 3 3 2 47,000 23,500 20,817 17,976
Gemologist 2009 Tiznow 2014 2 1 1 20,000 20,000 17,716 15,299
Girolamo 2006 A.P. Indy 2013 2 2 2 65,000 32,500 28,850 24,783
Golden Ticket 2009 Speightstown 2017 1 1 1 25,000 25,000 22,232 19,013
Goldencents 2010 Into Mischief 2016 10 8 4 457,000 114,250 101,205 87,394
Gone Astray 2006 Dixie Union 2013 1 1 1 30,000 30,000 26,575 22,948
Graydar 2009 Unbridled's Song 2015 3 2 2 55,000 27,500 24,455 20,914
Hard Spun 2004 Danzig 2009 5 5 3 400,000 133,333 118,502 101,271
Haynesfield 2006 Speightstown 2013 1 1 1 95,000 95,000 84,153 72,669
Honor Code 2011 A.P. Indy 2017 6 4 2 185,000 92,500 82,085 70,569
Ice Box 2007 Pulpit 2013 2 2 2 107,000 53,500 47,455 40,842
Jack Milton 2010 War Front 2017 2 2 1 30,000 30,000 26,679 22,815
Japan 2012 Medaglia d'Oro 2017 1 1 1 32,000 32,000 28,457 24,336
Jersey Town 2006 Speightstown 2014 3 2 2 35,000 17,500 15,562 13,309
Jimmy Creed 2009 Distorted Humor 2015 4 2 1 65,000 65,000 57,803 49,433
Justin Phillip 2008 First Samurai 2015 6 5 4 685,000 171,250 152,290 130,238
Kantharos 2008 Lion Heart 2012 9 7 7 1,056,000 150,857 134,004 114,671
Khozan 2012 Distorted Humor 2017 6 6 3 129,000 43,000 38,098 32,882
Kitten's Joy 2001 El Prado (IRE) 2007 2 2 2 280,000 140,000 124,500 106,472
Lea 2009 First Samurai 2017 4 2 1 65,000 65,000 57,578 49,721
Liaison 2009 Indian Charlie 2015 2 2 1 10,000 10,000 8,858 7,649
Liam's Map 2011 Unbridled's Song 2017 15 4 4 730,000 182,500 161,971 138,416
Lookin At Lucky 2007 Smart Strike 2012 3 3 2 175,000 87,500 77,509 66,932
Macho Uno 1998 Holy Bull 2005 1 1 1 4,000 4,000 3,543 3,060
Maclean's Music 2008 Distorted Humor 2014 6 5 3 295,000 98,333 87,175 75,130
Medal Count 2011 Dynaformer 2017 1 1 1 45,000 45,000 40,018 34,223
Midshipman 2006 Unbridled's Song 2012 3 2 1 77,000 77,000 68,475 58,560
Mineshaft 1999 A.P. Indy 2005 11 7 6 1,160,000 193,333 171,444 147,123
Mission Impazible 2007 Unbridled's Song 2014 4 3 2 85,000 42,500 37,734 32,399
Mr Speaker 2011 Pulpit 2017 4 4 3 340,000 113,333 100,537 86,508
Mucho Macho Man 2008 Macho Uno 2016 4 2 1 100,000 100,000 88,582 76,494
Munnings 2006 Speightstown 2012 10 4 3 290,000 96,667 85,964 73,516
New Year's Day 2011 Street Cry (IRE) 2015 3 2 2 89,500 44,750 39,795 34,033
Normandy Invasion 2010 Tapit 2017 2 1 1 100,000 100,000 88,928 76,051
Orb 2010 Malibu Moon 2015 3 3 3 330,000 110,000 97,532 84,025
Overdriven 2009 Tale of the Cat 2014 1 1 1 20,000 20,000 17,786 15,210
Palace 2009 City Zip 2017 6 2 2 195,000 97,500 86,705 74,150
Paynter 2009 Awesome Again 2015 4 3 3 315,000 105,000 93,202 80,075
Race Day 2011 Tapit 2017 3 3 3 325,000 108,333 96,143 82,640
Run Away and Hide 2006 City Zip 2010 1 1 1 100,000 100,000 88,582 76,494
Secret Circle 2009 Eddington 2017 5 2 1 30,000 30,000 26,575 22,948
Seek Again 2010 Speightstown 2017 1 1 1 55,000 55,000 48,911 41,828
Shackleford 2008 Forestry 2014 4 2 1 67,000 67,000 59,582 50,954
Shakin It Up 2010 Midnight Lute 2016 3 3 3 355,000 118,333 105,116 89,775
Sky Mesa 2000 Pulpit 2005 3 2 2 220,000 110,000 97,821 83,657
Soldat 2008 War Front 2015 2 1 1 25,000 25,000 22,145 19,123
Stay Thirsty 2008 Bernardini 2014 2 2 2 102,000 51,000 45,315 38,835
Street Boss 2004 Street Cry (IRE) 2010 5 4 3 407,000 135,667 120,372 103,526
Street Sense 2004 Street Cry (IRE) 2009 5 2 1 170,000 170,000 150,883 128,729
Strong Mandate 2011 Tiznow 2016 4 3 3 284,500 94,833 84,334 72,122
Summer Front 2009 War Front 2017 6 3 1 130,000 130,000 115,156 99,442
Take Charge Indy 2009 A.P. Indy 2015 5 4 3 157,000 52,333 46,539 39,800
Temple City 2005 Dynaformer 2012 2 2 2 70,000 35,000 31,021 26,751
Teuflesberg 2004 Johannesburg 2009 1 1 1 80,000 80,000 71,143 60,841
The Factor 2008 War Front 2014 9 8 6 605,000 100,833 89,586 76,792
Tiznow 1997 Cee's Tizzy 2003 9 9 8 1,434,000 179,250 159,142 136,175
Twirling Candy 2007 Candy Ride (ARG) 2013 6 5 3 220,000 73,333 65,214 55,771
Uncaptured 2010 Lion Heart 2016 11 8 6 456,000 76,000 67,472 57,943
Union Rags 2009 Dixie Union 2014 14 6 3 503,000 167,667 148,522 128,254
Violence 2010 Medaglia d'Oro 2015 8 4 4 320,000 80,000 70,909 61,140
Wicked Strong 2011 Hard Spun 2017 13 10 8 798,000 99,750 88,680 75,867
Will Take Charge 2010 Unbridled's Song 2016 8 4 1 80,000 80,000 70,865 61,195
Zivo 2009 True Direction 2017 1 1 1 10,000 10,000 8,893 7,605
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