Bill's Columns

The entire Tattersalls’ December Sale, which ran from Nov. 26 – Dec. 6, with nine days of selling over the 11-day period and included yearlings (one day), foals (four days), and mares and fillies (four days), was down about 5%, or about 5.4-million guineas (about US$7.2-million), from a record 105.2-million guineas (US$140m) last year, to 99.8-million guineas (US$133m) this year. The week before Tattersalls got underway, Goffs in Ireland had seen a 34% drop in their November sale gross, from €42-million in 2017 to €27.6-million this year. Added together and converted to Euros, the two sales were down over €20-million in gross, from €165.8-million in 2017 to €145-million this year. That’s a 13% drop in gross.

However, because of the nature of mixed sales, all categories are not equally reliable as indicators of the market. There are three principal categories of horses offered at mixed sales: in-foal mares; fillies not in foal bought either as racehorses or broodmare prospects; and weanlings. Even if the market remains exactly the same, the quality and value of fillies and in-foal mares can vary significantly from year to year, and certainly the breeding stock on offer at Goffs and Tattersalls was collectively not as high a standard as in some years. Exactly how much of a decline is because of the catalogue, and how much a drop in prices, is difficult to measure.

Weanlings, on the other hand, like yearlings present a more stable collection of pedigrees, and therefore a more reliable basis for comparison of the actual state of the marketplace. In this sector of the mixed sale market there were declines, but not as dramatic as the market overall, suggesting there was a marked decline in pedigree power among in-foal mares and fillies.

Between the two sales, 2,269 weanlings (referred to as ‘foals’ in European markets) were catalogued, of which 1,315 sold, a clearance rate of 58.0% from the catalogues, and the percentage was exactly the same at Goffs and Tattersalls. Last year 2,262 foals were catalogued (a difference of seven!), but 1,473 of them sold, a clearance rate of 65.1% - over 7% higher than in 2018. In other words, among foals, only 58 of every 100 catalogued sold this year, compared with 65 of 100 in 2017. Converted to Euros, this year’s 1,315 foals grossed €62,416,000, an average of €47,465. Last year the 1,473 foals sold grossed €65,562,803, and averaged €44,509. So 11% fewer foals sold for a total of 5% less than last year (about €3-million), and averaged 6% more. We think those figures should be more reliable as they are less subject to variation in the pedigrees and class available in the broodmare and broodmare prospect sectors. We’ll update all these figures next week, after the final big sale on the annual North American and European sales calendar, Arqana’s December Sale in Deauville Dec 8-11.

The top sires generally do not have so many weanlings sell; Dubawi had one filly and one colt sell at Tattersalls, the filly for 725,000 gns, the colt for 700,000, both to Stroud Coleman, which has been signing for most of the Godolphin purchases this year. They averaged £748,125 ($959,396 in US$). Galileo had three foals sell at Goffs and the 1.7-million gns sister to Decorated Knight at Tattersalls, his four averaging £585,795 ($749,742). Among sires with five or more foals sold, Frankel had by far the top average, with six foals averaging £492,998 ($604,720).

Nine other sires with five or more weanlings sold averaged over $100,000. Frankel’s Juddmonte barn-mate Kingman, Europe’s second-leading first-crop sire behind Coolmore’s No Nay Never (30 weanlings averaged $80,665 off a €17,500 stud fee in 2017), had six foals average the equivalent of $227,014. Ireland’s Ballylinch Stud’s Lope De Vega, who had a breakout year, had 12 average $207,353, while Ireland’s Gilltown Stud’s Sea The Stars had 32 weanlings sell, for an average of $199,651. Also topping the $100,000 average mark were: Invincible Spirit (6, $155,515); Muhaarar (8, $142,662), Europe’s top first-year yearling sire; Dark Angel (14, $137,511); the top sire with first foals this year, France’s Haras de Bouquetot’s Shalaa (15, $118,451); the all-conquering sire of 2-year-old winners, Kodiac (38, $112,343); and the up-and-coming Showcasing (29, $109,117).

Galileo was the leading covering sire by average, with two mares selling in foal to him, one to Phoenix Thoroughbreds for 1-million gns, the other the sale-topping mare Pearling, sister to Giant’s Causeway and prolific producer You’resothrilling, and dam herself of three-time Group 1 winner Decorated Knight, by Galileo. The two averaged £1,785,000 (i.e. 1.7-million guineas plus 5%)($2,271,056). Ireland’s Yeomanstown Stud’s Dark Angel registered a personal best when Bound, a Galileo stakes-winning full sister to three other stakes winners, brought 2.2-million gns in foal to him, so he had three mares in foal average £1,039,500 ($1,322,556). Frankel was third, with seven mares in foal to him averaging £498,750 ($634,745), followed by Lope De Vega (4, $603,197) and France’s top sire, Siyouni (8, $491,382). Dubawi had just a couple of relatively older mares sell in foal to him, each for 300,000 gns ($401,231).

Other sires with runners, nine or more mares sold in foal and six-figure averages converted to dollars included the two top European freshman sires, Kingman (12, $398,497) and No Nay Never (9, $154,412); and Darley’s Iffraaj (10, $139,954). And six sires standing their first seasons averaged over $100,000: France’s Haras d’Etreham’s Almanzor (4, $232,188); Coolmore’s pair of Caravaggio (12, $217,483) and Churchill (13, $134,247); The Irish National Stud’s Decorated Knight, who had a big representation from the Blue Diamond partners’ reduction (28, $127,845); Cheveley Park Stud’s Ulysses (5, $116,541); and Darley’s Ribchester (8, $103,734). The numbers for some of these sires will of course change after Arqana’s December Mixed Sale, which got underway Dec. 8 and finishes Dec. 11.