ELEVEN SIRES CREATE BOOK 1 SURGE
Date:
This article originally appeared in BloodHorse Daily on September 15th, 2018 .
At the close of business on September 13, Keeneland’s four-day Book 1 finished up a resounding success, with 596 yearlings (12% fewer than last year) grossing $216,813,000 ($20-million, or 10%, higher than last year), and averaging $363,780, a whopping 26% rise on last year’s Books 1-2 average of $288,759. They might try and tweak the stabling for next year to make it more convenient for buyers, but it would be a brave person who would bet against a four-day Keeneland Book 1 for 2019 after this week’s sensational Book 1.
Yet, as usual, all is not exactly how it appears. The whole sale was up by $20-million, but it wasn’t evenly spread. The accompanying chart breaks Book 1 down into four price ranges, but for this summery we’re going to combine the two highest groups as ‘$1-million plus”. It makes for some interesting reading.
A total of 467 yearlings (78% of the 596 sold) which sold for <$500,000 grossed $113-million and averaged $242,604; last year, 565 yearlings sold for <$500,000 grossed $110-million and averaged $194,849. So there was nearly a 3% rise in gross with almost 100 fewer yearlings sold, while the average for this sector jumped by 24%. As yearlings which sold for <$500,000 accounted for 78& of the yearlings catalogued in Book 1, this is obviously a key sector; the fact that the average for this sector rose 24%, and the average for the whole sale rose by 26% suggests we’re not out of line to say Book 1 was up 25% over Books 1-2 last year.
As strong as the sale buzz was during Week 1, it’s a little surprising to find the number of yearlings sold for $500,000-$999,000 was 103, exactly the same as last year. The gross for these 103 Book 1 yearlings was $68-million ($66-million last year), and the average was up just 2%, although that was from $646,650 to $662,378. So that sector of the market, which this year accounted for 31% of the gross, was essentially stable.
The really explosive growth was at the top, with 26 yearlings selling for $1-million plus, exactly double the 13 which breached the 7-figure mark last year; that’s a 100% increase. This year’s 26 seven-figure Book 1 yearlings grossed $35.5-million, a 78% increase over last year’s $19.95-million. We count 14 buyers (though some were partnerships) of those 26 seven-figure yearlings.
As a corollary to the concentration of the top prices, there were 11 sires which had three or more sell in Book 1 which beat the sale average of $360,780 (plus another three sires with small representation – Frankel had one sell, Super Saver two, Claiborne’s first-year sire Lea also two). Talk about concentration at the top: these 14 sires among them account for 465 yearlings (47% of the number catalogued in Book 1), of which 283 sold (49% of the number sold), for $140,220,000 – 65% of the money spent in Book 1 at Keeneland was signed for by buyers of yearlings by one of these 14 sires. You could almost say, if they could have figured out beforehand which 14 sires were going to beat the Book 1 average, you could have a two-day Book 1 with those sires, followed by a two-day Book 2 with all other sires. But that is a little difficult to predict beforehand.
Of the 11 sires with 3+ sold in Book 1 which beat the sale average, three averaged over $600,000: War Front (18 sold/33 catalogued, avg $782,500); Medaglia D’Oro (31/48, $625,645); and Tapit (23/44. $623,043). As you’ll recall, there were five North American and European sires which averaged over $650,000 last year: Dubawi, Galileo, and Frankel in Europe, and Tapit and War Front in America. As you can see, Medaglia D’Oro, who was a distant sixth among NA/EU yearling sires last year with an average just under $400,000, has now firmly placed himself among what is now a top six NA/EU commercial sires.
At this point of proceedings there is not such a big gap from the commercial superstars to the mere stars. Empire Maker, from his first crop back after repatriation, sold 17/30 for an average of $498,235; and Curlin was also pushing up against a $500,000 average as his 27/41 yearlings averaged $498,148. The only unproven sire among this top eleven is of course American Pharoah, who sold 37/66 catalogued for an average of $466,757, just edging his sire, Pioneerof The Nile, who had 21/38 average $463,810. Then followed Uncle Mo, with 40/67 averaging $422,250; Candy Ride (14/23. $398,571); Quality Road (22/24, $396,593); and Into Mischief (28/39, $388,573). These are the commercial elite; aside from the three sires noted above with one or two sold, all other sires averaged under the Book 1 average. Also note that most of them were plus-or-minus the Book’s overall clearance rate from the catalogue of 60% with the exception of Quality Road, who has 22/24 sell (92%), though as he stood in 2016 for $35,000 it’s not surprising people were selling when he averaged over 11 times the stud fee they paid.
However, as the Book 1 average was $363,780, on the whole they weren’t exactly being given away. Even if only 11 sires with 3+ sold beat the Book average. After American Pharoah (and Lea; everybody loves Lea), five other first-crop yearling sires had five or more sell in Book 1, all averaging over $200,000: Carpe Diem (10/15, $293,500); Liam’s Map (11/19, $268,182); Honor Code (32/41, $264,469); Tonalist (5/12, $215,000); and Constitution (5/9, $209,000). Among F2016 sires with their first crops racing as 2-year-olds, only Will Take Charge (12/17, $252,917) and Cairo Prince (5/14, $249,000) had 3+ sell in Book 1. With first 3-year-olds, F2015 sires Violence (4/4, $283,750) and Animal Kingdom (2/2, $205,000) had all their representatives sell, but Declaration of War still takes top honors, at least by gross, with 16/23 averaging $181,563). On to Week Two!
To see Bill Oppenheim’s columns, APEX sire ratings, the Weekly Sales Ticker and more, visit www.billoppenheim.com
| KEENELAND SEPTEMBER BOOK 1 RESULTS by SIRE | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIRE | 1st Fls | 2016 | 2018 | CAT | RING | SOLD | GROSS | AVG |
| War Front (2002), Danzig | 2008 | $200,000 | $250,000 | 33 | 26 | 18 | $14,085,000 | $782,500 |
| Medaglia d'Oro (1999), El Prado (IRE) | 2006 | $150,000 | $250,000 | 48 | 37 | 31 | $19,395,000 | $625,645 |
| Tapit (2001), Pulpit | 2006 | $300,000 | $300,000 | 44 | 31 | 23 | $14,330,000 | $623,043 |
| Frankel (GB) (2008), Galileo (IRE) | 2014 | £125,000 | £175,000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | $500,000 | $500,000 |
| Empire Maker (2000), Unbridled | 2005 | $100,000 | $85,000 | 30 | 23 | 17 | $8,470,000 | $498,235 |
| Curlin (2004), Smart Strike | 2010 | $100,000 | $150,000 | 41 | 32 | 27 | $13,450,000 | $498,148 |
| American Pharoah (2012), Pioneerof the Nile | 2017 | $200,000 | private | 66 | 51 | 37 | $17,270,000 | $466,757 |
| Pioneerof the Nile (2006), Empire Maker | 2011 | $125,000 | $110,000 | 38 | 30 | 21 | $9,740,000 | $463,810 |
| Lea (2009), First Samurai | 2017 | $12,500 | $7,500 | 4 | 4 | 2 | $905,000 | $452,500 |
| Uncle Mo (2008), Indian Charlie | 2013 | $75,000 | $125,000 | 67 | 54 | 40 | $16,890,000 | $422,250 |
| Candy Ride (ARG) (1999), Ride the Rails | 2006 | $60,000 | $80,000 | 23 | 21 | 14 | $5,580,000 | $398,571 |
| Quality Road (2006), Elusive Quality | 2012 | $35,000 | $70,000 | 24 | 23 | 22 | $8,725,000 | $396,591 |
| Into Mischief (2005), Harlan's Holiday | 2010 | $45,000 | $100,000 | 39 | 34 | 28 | $10,880,000 | $388,571 |
| Super Saver (2007), Maria's Mon | 2012 | $65,000 | $35,000 | 7 | 5 | 2 | $775,000 | $387,500 |
| Ghostzapper (2000), Awesome Again | 2007 | $60,000 | $85,000 | 27 | 23 | 15 | $5,150,000 | $343,333 |
| Tale of the Cat (1994), Storm Cat | 2000 | $30,000 | $25,000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | $335,000 | $335,000 |
| Hard Spun (2004), Danzig | 2009 | $45,000 | $40,000 | 18 | 14 | 10 | $3,225,000 | $322,500 |
| Speightstown (1998), Gone West | 2006 | $100,000 | $100,000 | 27 | 21 | 17 | $5,095,000 | $299,706 |
| Carpe Diem (2012), Giant's Causeway | 2017 | $25,000 | $25,000 | 15 | 13 | 10 | $2,935,000 | $293,500 |
| Elusive Quality (1993), Gone West | 2000 | $40,000 | - | 4 | 4 | 3 | $865,000 | $288,333 |
| Violence (2010), Medaglia d'Oro | 2015 | $15,000 | $25,000 | 4 | 4 | 4 | $1,135,000 | $283,750 |
| Street Sense (2004), Street Cry (IRE) | 2009 | $45,000 | $35,000 | 18 | 16 | 15 | $4,220,000 | $281,333 |
| Liam's Map (2011), Unbridled's Song | 2017 | $25,000 | $25,000 | 19 | 14 | 11 | $2,950,000 | $268,182 |
| Honor Code (2011), A.P. Indy | 2017 | $40,000 | $40,000 | 41 | 36 | 32 | $8,463,000 | $264,469 |
| Malibu Moon (1997), A.P. Indy | 2001 | $95,000 | $75,000 | 25 | 22 | 11 | $2,895,000 | $263,182 |
| More Than Ready (1997), Southern Halo | 2002 | $50,000 | $75,000 | 30 | 26 | 14 | $3,680,000 | $262,857 |
| Will Take Charge (2010), Unbridled's Song | 2016 | $30,000 | $30,000 | 17 | 15 | 12 | $3,035,000 | $252,917 |
| Blame (2006), Arch | 2012 | $25,000 | $12,500 | 7 | 6 | 2 | $500,000 | $250,000 |
| Fed Biz (2009), Giant's Causeway | 2016 | $12,500 | $10,000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | $250,000 | $250,000 |
| Cairo Prince (2011), Pioneerof the Nile | 2016 | $15,000 | $25,000 | 14 | 12 | 5 | $1,245,000 | $249,000 |
| Kitten's Joy (2001), El Prado (IRE) | 2007 | $100,000 | $60,000 | 19 | 18 | 11 | $2,705,000 | $245,909 |
| Temple City (2005), Dynaformer | 2012 | $15,000 | $15,000 | 3 | 3 | 2 | $490,000 | $245,000 |
| Bernardini (2003), A.P. Indy | 2008 | $100,000 | $85,000 | 25 | 22 | 17 | $4,125,000 | $242,647 |
| Creative Cause (2009), Giant's Causeway | 2014 | $15,000 | $20,000 | 2 | 2 | 2 | $485,000 | $242,500 |
| Giant's Causeway (1997), Storm Cat | 2002 | $85,000 | $75,000 | 10 | 8 | 7 | $1,690,000 | $241,429 |
| Tiznow (1997), Cee's Tizzy | 2003 | $60,000 | $50,000 | 22 | 18 | 10 | $2,400,000 | $240,000 |
| Midnight Lute (2003), Real Quiet | 2010 | $25,000 | $15,000 | 2 | 2 | 2 | $450,000 | $225,000 |
| Tonalist (2011), Tapit | 2017 | $30,000 | $20,000 | 12 | 8 | 5 | $1,075,000 | $215,000 |
| Congrats (2000), A.P. Indy | 2008 | $20,000 | $17,500 | 3 | 3 | 2 | $420,000 | $210,000 |
| Mineshaft (1999), A.P. Indy | 2005 | $25,000 | $25,000 | 5 | 5 | 2 | $420,000 | $210,000 |
| Constitution (2011), Tapit | 2017 | $25,000 | $25,000 | 9 | 8 | 5 | $1,045,000 | $209,000 |
| Bayern (2011), Offlee Wild | 2017 | $15,000 | $15,000 | 2 | 2 | 2 | $415,000 | $207,500 |
| Lemon Drop Kid (1996), Kingmambo | 2002 | $40,000 | $25,000 | 11 | 10 | 6 | $1,235,000 | $205,833 |
| Animal Kingdom (2008), Leroidesanimaux (BRZ) | 2015 | $35,000 | $30,000 | 2 | 2 | 2 | $410,000 | $205,000 |
| Bodemeister (2009), Empire Maker | 2014 | $30,000 | $40,000 | 6 | 4 | 2 | $390,000 | $195,000 |
| Flatter (1999), A.P. Indy | 2005 | $30,000 | $40,000 | 8 | 8 | 6 | $1,135,000 | $189,167 |
| City Zip (1998), Carson City | 2003 | $40,000 | - | 15 | 14 | 11 | $2,060,000 | $187,273 |
| Munnings (2006), Speightstown | 2012 | $25,000 | $25,000 | 5 | 4 | 4 | $730,000 | $182,500 |
| Declaration of War (2009), War Front | 2015 | $40,000 | $25,000 | 23 | 20 | 16 | $2,905,000 | $181,563 |
| Distorted Humor (1993), Forty Niner | 2000 | $100,000 | $50,000 | 20 | 19 | 15 | $2,717,000 | $181,133 |
| Street Boss (2004), Street Cry (IRE) | 2010 | $12,500 | $20,000 | 2 | 2 | 2 | $345,000 | $172,500 |
| English Channel (2002), Smart Strike | 2009 | $25,000 | $25,000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | $170,000 | $170,000 |
| Union Rags (2009), Dixie Union | 2014 | $35,000 | $60,000 | 12 | 11 | 5 | $835,000 | $167,000 |
| Daredevil (2012), More Than Ready | 2017 | $12,500 | $7,500 | 2 | 2 | 1 | $150,000 | $150,000 |
| Orb (2010), Malibu Moon | 2015 | $25,000 | $25,000 | 2 | 2 | 1 | $150,000 | $150,000 |
| Verrazano (2010), More Than Ready | 2016 | $20,000 | $17,500 | 6 | 4 | 2 | $210,000 | $105,000 |
| Karakontie (JPN) (2011), Bernstein | 2017 | $15,000 | $10,000 | 2 | 2 | 1 | $100,000 | $100,000 |
| Commissioner (2011), A.P. Indy | 2017 | $7,500 | $7,500 | 2 | 2 | 2 | $200,000 | $100,000 |
| Noble Mission (GB) (2009), Galileo (IRE) | 2016 | $25,000 | $20,000 | 2 | 2 | 1 | $95,000 | $95,000 |
| Mr Speaker (2011), Pulpit | 2017 | $10,000 | $10,000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | $80,000 | $80,000 |
| Awesome Again (1994), Deputy Minister | 2000 | $75,000 | private | 5 | 3 | 3 | $158,000 | $52,667 |
| Zoffany (IRE) (2008), Dansili (GB) | 2013 | €45,000 | €35,000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | $45,000 | $45,000 |
| Shanghai Bobby (2010), Harlan's Holiday | 2015 | $15,000 | $15,000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $0 | |
| Palace Malice (2010), Curlin | 2017 | $20,000 | $20,000 | 5 | 4 | 0 | $0 | |
| Gleneagles (IRE) (2012), Galileo (IRE) | 2017 | €60,000 | €40,000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $0 | |
| Galileo (IRE) (1998), Sadler's Wells | 2003 | private | private | 1 | 1 | 0 | $0 | |
| Mucho Macho Man (2008), Macho Uno | 2016 | $15,000 | $10,000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $0 | |
| Cross Traffic (2009), Unbridled's Song | 2016 | $10,000 | $7,500 | 1 | 0 | 0 | $0 | |
| Summer Front (2009), War Front | 2017 | $10,000 | $10,000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $0 | |
| Take Charge Indy (2009), A.P. Indy | 2015 | $17,500 | - | 1 | 1 | 0 | $0 | |
| Flat Out (2006), Flatter | 2015 | $8,500 | $7,000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $0 | |
| Maclean's Music (2008), Distorted Humor | 2014 | $6,500 | $25,000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | $0 | |
| Book 1 Price Ranges 2018-2017 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ring | Sold | RNA | Gross US$ | Avg US$ | Ring | Sold | RNA | Gross US$ | Avg US$ | |
| $0 to $499,999 | 684 | 467 | 217 | 113,063,000 | 242,104 | 884 | 565 | 319 | 110,090,000 | 194,849 |
| $500,000 to $999,999 | 114 | 103 | 11 | 68,225,000 | 662,378 | 111 | 103 | 8 | 66,605,000 | 646,650 |
| $1,000,000 to $1,999,999 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 28,825,000 | 1,235,261 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12,150,000 | 1,215,000 |
| $2,000,000 and up | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6,700,000 | 2,223,333 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7,800,000 | 2,600,000 |
| 596 | 681 | |||||||||