Bill's Columns

In the Northern Hemisphere, we do APEX sire ratings for three regions: North America, ‘Europe’ (defined as GB/Ireland, France, and Germany), and Japan. Though Japan is pretty much out on its own both geographically and in terms of the racing program, there is tremendous commerce between North America and Europe, such that the ratings for sires in the two regions correspond. Not so in the Southern Hemisphere. We are covering three regions in the Southern Hemisphere, but they are quite distinct from each other. The three regions we identify are: Australasia; South America; and South Africa.

In Australasia, our ratings at the moment cover just Australia and New Zealand, but we have also run the numbers for racing in Hong Kong, since there are no stallions in Hong Kong, and a big majority of their runners are sourced in Australia and New Zealand. We now have Hong Kong numbers separately, but we plan to incorporate those results with the Australasian sires as well as publishing them separately in the future. In South America, we cover racing in five countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Uruguay. Each country is calculated separately, then we add the relevant results together. South Africa is its own region, not least because of the quarantine restrictions which make shuttling stallions, for example, an impossibility at the moment. There is not much commerce among the three regions, although South Africans do import some racehorses from Australia.

When we look at the world’s racing regions, there’s no doubt North America and Europe, in either order you prefer, still have the world’s top ‘open’ racing. There is plenty of evidence that the top Japanese horses are that good, but the racing’s not really ‘open’ – ownership is very difficult. That’s why Australia rightfully deserves to be considered the world’s third most important ‘open’ racing. Many Aussies would like to believe it’s right up there with North America and Europe, and it is getting there, but except for the sprinters, it’s not there just yet.

Well, the money is world-class and the enthusiasm is second to none, there’s no doubt about that. My colleague Emily Plant and I and respective spouses spent a month plus in the Hunter Valley, New Zealand, and Sydney in that order in March and April and we got a first-hand look at what it’s all about and yes, it is absolutely massive. It’s a big, important marketplace, in many respects, just as healthy as North America and Europe, and the Australasians have the benefit of both good prizemoney and a massive export market to Asia, not just Hong Kong, but Singapore and Macau as well. North America has pretty good prizemoney, and Europe has a big export market (including to Hong Kong and Australia), but Australia has both – including massive Asian investment in Australian farms, stallions, mares, and racehorses.

One of the big arguments in Australasian breeding has to do with ‘Colonial’ versus ‘Shuttle’ stallions. The top five sires in Australasia by APEX A Runner Index are all Colonial sires (bred in Australasia), although the source of all that class is Northern: Danehill, Sir Tristram, and, in the case of I Am Invincible, Invincible Spirit. Yes, they have some real rockets down there, and Winx (by the shuttler Street Cry, of course) could hold her own anyplace in the world up to 10 furlongs, but the truth is the Australasian stallion ranks are a blend of Northern and Colonial, and it’s 1-to-10 they’ll stay that way: there are just too many top horses ‘up north’ who find their way ‘down south’, and some of them (Teofilo #6 and Street Cry #7, for example, by Southern Hemisphere A Runner Index) are going to be very successful.

Arrowfield Stud stands Australasia’s two top sires. Redoute’s Choice was Australia’s champion sire three times, and his son, Snitzel, has just completed his second consecutive record-breaking season as Australia’s leading sire. Snitzel (3.85) noses out his dad, Redoute’s Choice (3.84), as Australasia’s leading sire by APEX A Runner Index for the seven racing seasons 2011/12 through 2017/18. It’s very striking how close they are, and how far ahead of the rest of the field. New Zealand’s champion sire, Waikato Stud’s Savabeel (3.06), by Zabeel, by Sir Tristram, ranks third, followed by Yarraman Park’s wunderkind I Am Invincible (2.98), who ties for fourth with Coolmore’s flagship sire Fastnet Rock (2.98), the incomparable Danehill’s second-best son in Australasia. Darley’s Teofilo (2.97) is a nose behind in sixth, with Winx’s sire Street Cry (2.79), who died in 2014, in seventh. Makfi (2.71), who stood at Westbury Stud in New Zealand; High Chaparral (2.58), who died in 2015; and Darley’s veteran Exceed And Excel (2.55), also by Danehill, round out the top ten sires in Australasia by APEX A Runner index.

I Am Invincible is the only sire in the top ten whose first foals arrived in 2010 or later, but the younger sires dominate the second ten, as six of the next ten sires had their first foals in 2010 or later. F2010 Sebring (2.40, Widden) ranks #12, while #13 Mastercraftsman (2.35, no longer shuttles) and New Zealand’s #20 Tavistock (2.13, Cambridge Stud) join #4 I Am Invincible in representing F2011 sires. with their first crops 2011. New Zealand’s #8 Makfi, now in Japan was the top F2012 sire, ahead of #15 Hinchinbrook (2.29, Yarraman Park), a ¾-brother to Snitzel by Fastnet Rock, who died just before the beginning of the 2018 SH covering season. Coolmore stands the top two from the youngest sire crops: #11 So You Think (2.41) is the top sire with first foals 4-year-olds of 2017-18, 5-year-olds now; and #16 Pierro (2.26) tops the sires which had their first 3-year-olds last season, and have their first 4-year-olds now. Deceased #14 Commands (2.32); Arrowfield’s #17 Not A Single Doubt (2.24) , another son of Redoute’s Choice; Darley’s #18 Medaglia D’Oro (2.15, first NH foals 2006, first Australian foals 2011); and New Zealand’s The Oaks Stud #19 Darci Brahma (2.14), round out the Australasian Top 20 (with 150+ year-starters at the end of the 2017-18 season) by SH APEX A Runner Index.

Each of the five countries our data covers in South America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Uruguay) has their own distinct racing program, and there isn’t necessarily that much interchange among them. Nonetheless it makes sense to group them together for analytical purposes, as combined they do constitute an important international market; even if it is not pushing up to near-Northern Hemisphere levels like Australasia is; the top horses, yes, like top horses everywhere.

Scat Daddy only shuttled three seasons to Chile 2009-2011 and completely rewrote the record books there, after which he covered mares to Southern time, sometimes in batches, for Chilean breeders. The APEX rule is that sires with 10 or more 3-year-olds of the last season covered (for the 2017-18 season, those were foals of 2014) are assigned APEX ratings. We list Scat Daddy as having had 12 SH foals of 2014 (and in the 20’s in 2015 and 2016), therefore he is eligible for APEX ratings. Not surprisingly he is the Leading Sire in South America by SH A Runner Index, with a 5.40 rating. That speaks for itself. The Argentine sire Key Deputy (4.26), a son of Deputy Minister, comes next, followed by Peru’s Yazamaan (4.03), a son of Galileo. Key Deputy, a half-brother to the speedy Yankee Gentleman, later the damsire of American Pharoah, ran second in the G3 Bold Ruler H., has an amazing 4.02 ABC 2-year-old index. Yazamaan won two races as a 2-year-old for Sheikh Hamdan in 2006 and is out of Moon’s Whisper, a Storm Cat mare who is now famous for being a half-sister to Alpha Lupi, the dam of Europe’s top 3-year-old miling filly of 2018, Alpha Centauri.

Drosselmeyer, the 2010 G1 Belmont S. and 2011 G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner by Distorted Humor, has been a flop up north (0.65 NH A Runner Index), but is the top APEX sire in Brazil, where he sports a 3.77 SH A Runner Index from just under 200 year-starters through the end of last season. Lookin At Lucky (3.29) came to Chile from Ashford and has done really well himself, and now has Chilean-breds running well for him who were brought up north as well; he ranks #5 in South America. Forestry (3.25), who now stands in Brazil, and Put It Back (3.24), who is by Honour And Glory and earlier did well at stud in Florida but now stands in Argentina, rank 6-7, ahead of Roman Ruler (3.06), who has been Champion Sire in Argentina. Ecclesiastic (2.98), a son of Pulpit who has been the top sire in Uruguay, and Grand Daddy (2.94), a full brother to Scat Daddy who won the Forego S. at Turfway Park as a 6-year-old, round out the top ten sires in South America with 150+ year-starters by APEX A Runner Index.

According to the IFHA (International Federation of Horseracing Authorities) website, there were 12,638 thoroughbred foals born in Australia in 2015, plus 3,744 in New Zealand makes a total of 16,412 foals in Australasia. Argentina, which has by far the biggest foal crop in South America, produced 7,454 foals; Brazil 2,060; Chile 1,626; Uruguay 1,650; and Peru 581, for a total of 13,371 thoroughbred foals of 2015 in South America. South Africa, which its own region, produced 3,183. The total for the Southern Hemisphere countries we are covering is 32,972 foals of 2015. Australasia is almost exactly half the total, South America 40%, South Africa a little under 10%. So they have a correspondingly smaller stallion population – really only about 75 active stallions at any one time, of which eight have A Runner indices over 2.00. Six of them are their top sires but are now all 18 years old or over, so either pretty old, dead, or retired: Dynasty (3.27); Silvano (2.78); Captain Al (2.52); Trippi (2.45); Go Deputy (2.08); and Kahal (2.07). That leaves as the two top young sires Querari (2.65), a good miler and Group 1 winner in Italy bred by the Jacobs family’s Gestut Fahrhof and standing at Maine Chance; and Varsfontein Stud’s Gimmethegreenlight, an Australian-bred son of More Than Ready, who won the G1 Queen’s Plate, at a mile, as a 3-year-old, in South Africa. Querari, who ranks #3, had his first foals in 2012; Gimmethegreenlight, who ranks #6, is F2013.