IT'S FASIG TIME
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The 2018 North American and European 2-year-old sales are done, Royal Ascot is over, so it’s just about Fasig time. The storied Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale, which has launched so many sires’ commercial careers, kicks off the North American and European 2018 yearling auction sales season next Tuesday, July 10, but first we have an increasingly relevant Horses of Racing Age sale Monday afternoon, July 9, to get things underway. Fasig-Tipton introduced this sale in 2013; twice in its five-year history it has grossed over $8-million, and this year, even before they take supplements, there are a record 152 horses catalogued. When we consider the yearling sale has grossed over $20-million just once since 2008, and has usually grossed around $15-$16 million, it certainly looks like the market is endorsing the Monday sale – not to mention it’s good news for Fasig’s bottom line.
Even so, it is the yearling sale which means the most to commercial buyers and sellers. Fasig has catalogued 347 yearlings, 50 more (16%) than last year and the same number as were catalogued two years ago. In 2015, the sale saw 205 yearlings sell from 332 catalogued, a clearance rate from the catalogue of 61.7%; that year the sale grossed $20,005,000 and averaged $97,585. In 2016 the clearance rate dropped to 52.7%, the gross to $15.7-million, and the average to $86,101. Last year the clearance rate from a smaller catalogue ticked back up to 57.9%, the gross rose slightly, to $16.1-million, and the average came back up to $93,645. If we were expecting a strong market, Fasig could be hoping to sell 200 yearlings, gross $20-million, and average $100,000. In light of the 8% decline at the 2-year-old sales this year – the gross for the North American and European sales combined was $239.7-million (down from $258.7-million), and about the same as in 2015 ($238.8-million) – whether we are expecting a strong market is debatable. However, one good thing about projections is they give us a standard against which to measure the actual results, so the real question will be how close or far the Fasig Yearling sale is from a $20-million gross and $100,000 average. Before the fact, those look like optimistic targets.
As Fasig July aspires to be a $100,000 yearling sale, this isn’t meant to be the sale for more than a scattering by the top sires like Tapit (one colt catalogued), War Front (none), and Uncle Mo (2 colts); this is the ‘conformation’ sale, and what we see from the sire list are especially the young sires which are throwing the kind which have traditionally sold well here; who, among the lower five-figure stud fee sires, are getting the good-looking (especially first-crop) yearlings?
Thus there are 13 yearlings catalogued by Darby Dan’s Tapiture, whose first foals (including ‘short yearlings’) averaged $52,553, but just two by Ashford’s American Pharoah, whose first foals averaged $467,308; he’s on deck, beginning with Saratoga. Tapiture, winner of five Graded races and second to Goldencents in the 2014 edition of the GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, is one of six sires with 10 or more catalogued at Fasig, of which three are first-crop sires. Besides Tapiture, the other two first-year sires with 10+ catalogued are: Ashford’s Competitive Edge (12 catalogued), a $750,000 two-year-old from Super Saver’s first crop who won the G1 Hopeful at two and G3 Pat Day Mile at three; and WinStar’s Commissioner (11), a neck second to Tonalist in the 2014 G1 Belmont S. He ran his best race (Beyer 109) in the G3 Skip Away at Gulfstream the following February, but was injured and retired before he could confirm his improvement. He and Lane’s End’s Honor Code (one filly catalogued), who, like American Pharoah, will be appearing a little later, are the last two major sons of A.P. Indy to go to stud. The other sire with double-digit representation in the catalogue is Ashford’s Shanghai Bobby (10), who just had his first Group winner at Royal Ascot when the filly Shang Shang Shang, from his second crop. beat the boys in the G2 Norfolk S.
A total of 14 stallions have four or more yearlings from their first crops catalogued at Fasig, which is 40% of the 35 sires total with 4+ catalogued; not surprisingly, 32 first-crop yearling sires in all constitute 39% of the yearlings catalogued. WinStar, which incidentally was also the breeder of Competitive Edge, is represented not just by Commissioner, but also by 2014 G1 Florida Derby and 2015 G1 Donn H. winner Constitution (by Tapit, 8 catalogued); the intriguing Daredevil (More Than Ready, 8 catalogued), who ran off with the 2014 G1 Champagne S. in a Beyer 107, on a sloppy track; and Carpe Diem (five catalogued), a $1.6-million 2-year-old by Giant’s Causeway who was a Group 1 winner at two and three at Keeneland and whose first weanlings/short yearlings sold like hotcakes (averaged $110,475). Also with eight catalogued is Spendthrift’s tough (30 starts) G1-winning sprinter Palace (City Zip). Another Spendthrift sire, G1 Wood Memorial and G2 Jim Dandy winner Wicked Strong (Hard Spun) is one of three first-crop sires with seven catalogued, along with Three Chimneys’ 2013 G1 Belmont S. and 2014 G1 Met Mile winner Palace Malice, from Curlin’s first crop; and Airdrie’s Summer Front, a five-times Group 1-placed and Group 2-winning son of War Front whose first weanlings/short yearlings averaged ($78,554) nearly eight times his stud fee.
Often the very sires who were last year’s ‘market darlings’ the market seems to have completely forgotten about when their first 2-year-olds are running and their second crops are at the sales. So it’s encouraging that seven sires with first 2-year-olds have four or more yearlings catalogued, headed by Spendthrift’s Goldencents (Into Mischief), who has four winners now, including the impressive Churchill scorer, Bano Solo; he has eight catalogued, while another popular son of Giant’s Causeway standing at WinStar, Fed Biz, has seven catalogued. Three Chimneys’ Strong Mandate and Will Take Charge have five and four catalogued respectively; Spendthift’s Shakin It Up has five catalogued; and Airdrie’s Cairo Prince and Ashford’s Verrazano each has four catalogued.
Among sires with their first 3-year-olds, besides Shanghai Bobby, WinStar export Take Charge Indy and Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Violence, one-two among 2018 North American second-crop sires by progeny earnings, have five each catalogued. Among sires with their first 4-year-olds, Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Maclean’s Music has six catalogued, while WinStar’s Bodemeister and Lane’s End’s Union Rags have four each. Among older sires, Claiborne’s First Samurai has seven catalogued, Spendthrift’s Into Mischief has six. As Into Mischief currently sits number four on the 2018 North American General Sire List, those are sure to continue to attract the big buyers.
TOP 2-YEAR-OLD SALES SIRES
Though there is a reasonably healthy 2-year-old auction market in Europe, it still only constitutes about a quarter of the combined North American and European 2-Year-Old auction market, and besides that a good number of the 2-year-olds in European sales are by American sires anyway. Thus, of the 26 sires which had two or more 2-year-olds sell and averaged over US$165,000, just four stand in Europe. For the record, those are: Frankel, #1 on average (US$644,388) with just two sold; Sea The Stars (4 sold, avg $310,811); Pivotal (4, $191,270); and France’s Wootton Bassett (5, $169,087).
Darley’s Medaglia D’Oro was the top American sire by average at the 2-year-old sales, with nine selling for an average of $526,624. Gainesway’s three-time Leading Sire Tapit had four average $496,250, and the all-conquering Scat Daddy had no fewer than 27 sell from his final crop, grossing over $13-million and averaging $481,852. Claiborne’s War Front had three average $347,850, and Paul Reddam’s California sire Square Eddie had three average $275,000 himself. WinStar’s Pioneerof The Nile had 14 two-year-olds average $246,643; Ashford’s Uncle Mo had 25 average $242,176 (that was a $25,000 stud fee); and Spendthrift’s Into Mischief has nearly $9-million in two-year-old sales, as 39 of his juveniles averaged $227,333.
Among sires with their first 2-year-olds, the surprise winner by average was Real Solution, a dual 10-furlong Grade 1-winning son of Kitten’s Joy who had five two-year-olds sell at the in-training sales and averaged $218,000 because two colts by him sold for $675,000 and $325,000 respectively at OBS March. He stood the 2015 season at his owner-breeder’s Ramsey Farm, then moved to Calumet, but now is listed as standing at Blue Star Racing in Louisiana. Second by average, another surprise, was Adena Springs’s Mucho Macho Man, winner of the 2013 G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, by a nose over Will Take Charge. Mucho Macho Man had 13 two-year-olds sell, seven of them for over $100,000, including colts for $575,000 at OBS March and $625,000 at Fasig’s Maryland sale. Then followed Three Chimneys’ pair of Will Take Charge (23, averaged $168,659) and Strong Mandate (20, $156,050); Europe’s Juddmonte’s Kingman (3, $153,379); and Airdrie’s Cairo Prince (34, averaged $140,426).