Bill's Columns

The preliminaries are over. The first third of the calendar year is finished, and now the Classic season begins. Next weekend sees the GI Kentucky Oaks on May 4, the G1 English 2000 Guineas and the GI Kentucky Derby May 5, and the G1 English 1000 Guineas May 6. The following weekend are the two French Guineas races, then the Preakness, then the Irish Guineas the last weekend in May, and – just four weeks after the Kentucky Derby and English Guineas – on June 1 and 2 are the G1 Epsom Oaks and G1 Epsom Derby, and another week later it’s the GI Belmont S. The Classics are coming, thick and fast.

When a sire’s third crop has reached racing age, his oldest foals are four, and his second crop of 3-year-olds is racing. A sire needs to have Classic action by this time, or he’ll be playing catch-up with the rest of his sire crop. Among North American third-crop sires, WinStar’s Bodemeister (Empire Maker) and Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Maclean’s Music (Distorted Humor) scored big with 2017 Classic wins by Always Dreaming in the GI Kentucky Derby and Cloud Computing in the GI Preakness respectively. They are among the eight North American third-crop sires (first foals 2014) with over $5-million in cumulative progeny earnings (excluding Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore) through April 26, according to figures compiled by The Blood-Horse.

Three sires have progeny earnings over $7-million, headed by Bodemeister. Always Dreaming will look to add to that total this weekend, in the May 4 GII Alysheba S. on the Kentucky Oaks card. Chasing Bodemeister are Darby Dan’s Dialed In (Mineshaft) and Lane’s End’s Union Rags (Dixie Union). Dialed In’s poster boy is Gunnevera, winner of the GII Fountain of Youth, third in this year’s GI Pegasus, and earner of over $2.9-million, while Union Rags has sired four Grade I winners – no other sire in this group has more than one – including this weekend’s Derby outsider Free Drop Billy.

Probably the livest of the three Derby contenders from the second crop of 3-year-olds by third-crop sires is My Boy Jack, by Airdrie’s Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway), who was a close third in the GII Louisiana Derby, which split two Grade III wins in Oaklawn’s Southwest S. and the Lexington S. at Keeneland. My Boy Jack is Creative Cause’s fourth Grade III winner, and his sire ranks fourth among the sire group by cumulative progeny earnings; he’s about one breakthrough horse away from becoming a really hot sire. Fifth by cumulative progeny earnings is Darby Dan’s Shackleford (Forestry). He’s had two Grade II winning colts, one in each crop: Malagacy won the GII Rebel last year, and Promises Fulfilled, another who will be an outsider in Saturday’s Derby, led all the way to win this year’s GII Fountain of Youth. Shackleford is also the sire of the Canadian filly Dream It is, who shipped in for last year’s GIII Schuylerville at Saratoga and absolutely romped.

Sixth-ranked The Factor (War Front) is standing in Japan this year, from Lane’s End, while seventh-ranked Stay Thirsty has moved from Ashford to Lovacres Ranch in California. Maclean’s Music rounds out the eight sires with $5-million-plus in cumulative progeny earnings, followed by WinStar’s Gemologist (Tiznow) and Gainesway’s Tapizar (Tapit), who can move further up the list if Monomoy Girl, winner of the GII Rachel Alexandra and GI Ashland in her two 2018 starts (and five-for-six lifetime, a head away from being undefeated) can justify favouritism in the GI Kentucky Oaks.

Three horses to watch in the second ten, ranked 16th-18th: Spendthrift’s Dominus (Smart Strike) who had some stunning sales in a small first crop which ran, and is now getting bigger crops of better mares; Louisiana’s Clear Creek Stud’s Star Guitar (Quiet American) was the all-time leading Louisiana-bred with earnings over $1.75-million and now looks like making a sire there; and Crestwood Farm’s Get Stormy (Stormy Atlantic) was a popular grass miler who won three Grade I’s and over $1.6-million and is carving out a following for a $5,000 stallion.

The leading North American second-crop sire, as we head into their first Classic season, is Take Charge Indy, an A.P. Indy half-brother to Will Take Charge who won the 2012 GI Florida Derby in his own right, and actually ran a lifetime best (Beyer 109) in the GII Alysheba on Kentucky Oaks day in 2013. WinStar sold him to South Korea before the 2017 season, when he promptly ran third to Overanalyze (Dixie Union) and Violence (Medaglia D’Oro) on the 2017 North American Freshman Sire List. This year’s he’s jumped into the lead among second-crop sires, with 2018 earnings over $1.7-million, four black-type winners, including GII Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy, who goes in the Derby, and GIII winner and twice Grade II-second Take Charge Paula, who goes in the Kentucky Oaks. It’s been widely reported that discussions are under way to repatriate Take Charge Indy for 2019.

Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Violence was runner-up as Leading Freshman Sire last year and is currently second to Take Charge Indy this year, and cumulatively. The sire crop’s leader by winners (45) and tied with Take Charge Indy and Overanalyze with five Black-Type Winners each, is Violence; his filly Cosmic Burst, winner of the GIII Honeybee at Oaklawn Park and fourth in the GIII Fantasy, is a possible contender for the Kentucky Oaks. Florida’s Pleasant Acres Farm’s Poseidon’s Warrior (Speightstown) has last year’s GI Champagne S. winner Firenze Fire going in the Derby, and Calumet’s Oxbow (Awesome Again) will be represented in the Oaks by the well-fancied GII Gulfstream Park Oaks winner (defeating Take Charge Paula), Coach Rocks.

Looking at the wider world of sires, notable in the Derby are that Hill ‘n’ Dale’s Curlin goes in with three live chances in Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Solomini; and the late great Scat Daddy is due to have four runners – Justify, Mendelssohn, Flameaway, and Combatant. Throw in that Into Mischief has a live chance with GI Florida Derby winner Audible from just his second big crop of 3-year-olds; it’s a very intriguing race.

The European third-crop sire list is dominated by three sires who have already had big things happen regardless of the results of the upcoming Classics. Thunder Snow, from the first crop by Darley’s Helmet, a triple Group 1 winner in Australia by Exceed And Excel, won this year’s $10-million G1 Dubai World Cup, so Helmet tops the charts by cumulative progeny earnings (outside of Japan, Hong Kong, and Japan). England’s Newsells Park’s Nathaniel, sire of 2017 European Horse of The Year and G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Enable, ranks second, with Banstead Manor’s Frankel third. As you can see from the table, though, Frankel has 21 Black-Type Winners, 16 of them Group SW. He was the most phenomenal (and highest-rated) racehorse of all time, and the very least we can say about him as a sire is that so far he looks like he will be the best sire son of the phenomenal sire, Galileo.

The European second-crop sire list also very much looks like a work in progress. Leading 2017 European Freshman Sire Society Rock (Rock of Gibraltar) unfortunately died before he ever had a runner. Current cumulative number two Dabirsim (Hat Trick), now in his second season at France’s Haras de Grandcamp, from Germany, and number four, Tweenhills Farm’s Havana Gold (Teofilo) were also prominent freshman sires. When this sire crop went to stud three of the more prominent names were Coolmore’s Camelot (Montjeu); Darley Kildangan’s Dawn Approach (New Approach); and Intello (Galileo), who alternated between Cheveley Park in England and Haras du Quesnay in France; he is back at Cheveley Park this year. Camelot was number four on the Freshman Sire List, is now up to number three by cumulative earnings, and it seems like his name is in the papers every day now. Dawn Approach and Intello are not so far up the ladder yet, but both are getting good winners in the right company; Dawn Approach in fact has had a Group 3 winning filly in France and an impressive Listed-winning filly in Ireland in the last couple of weeks. Another who popped up with two good Black-Type winners in the last couple of weeks is England’s Overbury Stud’s Cityscape, a good miler by Selkirk for Juddmonte. He had the upset G3 Fred Darling S. winner Dan’s Dream and a Listed winner in Ireland to appear, really for the first time as a sire, on our radar screens. Finally, I should mention Declaration of War (War Front). He stood one season at Coolmore in Ireland, then transferred to Ashford in Kentucky, and therefore is included as number 14 on the North American second-crop sire list. But most of his first crop is racing in Europe; if he were counted as a European second-crop sire he would be neck-and-neck with Camelot for third ranking on that list.