Bill's Columns

Sires with their first 4-year-olds, and second crops of 3-year-olds, this year are at a critical juncture of their sire careers; either they will have sired something of Classic standard in one or both of their first two crops in the next couple of months, or they won't. Two months in to 2018, looking at the leading North American sires with first foals 2014 (4-year-olds of 2018), the impact of Classic and Grade One form on the "third-crop" (so called because their third crops have now reached racing age) cumulative progeny earnings is clear.

In fact, six North American third-crop sires are standing for $20,000 or more in 2018: the top five by cumulative progeny earnings plus current eighth-ranked Maclean's Music. Here's a brief rundown:

Darby Dan has the one-four from two nominees: the 2011 GI Florida Derby winner Dialed In, who was the surprise 2016 Leading North American Freshman Sire over Lane's End's Union Rags, has now regained the top spot by cumulative progeny earnings; while the 2011 GI Preakness and 2012 GI Met Mile winner Shackleford moved into fourth by virtue of the aptly-named Promises Fulfilled's upset win in the March 3 GII Fountain of Youth. WinStar's Bodemeister, sire of 2016 GI Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming, who is aiming for a big comeback for the Pletcher barn, is second by cumulative progeny earnings, with Union Rags in third. Union Rags has four Grade I winners; no other F2014 North American sire has more than one.

Dialed In has seven Black-Type Winners and three Graded SW in his first two crops, including new Grade II winner Ms Locust Point, a 4-year-old filly from his first crop, this year. But Dialed In's marquee horse is Gunnevera, a dual Grade II winner of the Saratoga Special at two and the Fountain of Youth at three, also second to West Coast in the GI Travers, and third in the GI Florida Derby and, this year, third in the GI Pegasus, earning $1.3-million that day and taking his career earnings to nearly $3-million. He could try West Coast again in the $10-million G1 Dubai World Cup later this month.

Airdrie's Creative Cause got his third Grade III winner when My Boy Jack won the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn, throwing his hat in the ring as a Classic contender. Creative Cause ranks fifth among North American third-crop sires by cumulative progeny earnings, followed by Stay Thirsty, exported to California's Lovacres Ranch from Ashford this year, and The Factor, who actually leads this group by cumulative Black-Type Winners (9) but is standing in Japan this year. Hill 'n' Dale's Maclean's Music, who was the fastest maiden winner ever, according to the Beyer figures (114) and sired GI Preakness winner Cloud Computing right out of the box, ranks eighth. WinStar's Gemologist and Gainesway's Tapizar round out the top ten, both with cumulative progeny earnings to date over $4-million. Notable among the second ten are Spednthrift's Dominus (16th), a son of Smart Strike who has notched up a 4.31 APEX A Runner Index from limited chances; Crestwood's Get Stormy (18th), a really popular three-time turf Grade I winner by Stormy Atlantic trained by Tom Bush who is holding his own in salty company in the sire stakes; and Louisiana's Clear Creek Stud's Star Guitar (19th), the all-time money-winning Louisiana-bred and making a bid to be a top sire there, too.

Among Europe's third-crop sires, two sons of Galileo divide the spoils. Juddmonte's Frankel, the highest-rated racehorse of all time, blows everybody away with 20 Black-Type Winners, of which an amazing 16 are Group SW. He's also the money leader if you count Asian earnings in Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, but without them he is number two in progeny earnings to Newsells Park's Nathaniel, the sire of Europe's 2017 Horse of the Year and $5-million earner, Enable, winner of five Group Ones including the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, both over colts. Ironically, Enable is bred and owned by Juddmonte. Darley's Helmet, an Australian-bred son of Exceed And Excel who has sired dual French Group 1 winner Thunder Snow, is third among European third-crop sires by cumulative progeny earnings, followed by Haras de Montfort et Preaux's Rajsaman, sire of dual 2017 French Classic winner Brametot; and Coolmore's Excelebration, another son of Exceed And Excel and sire of 2017 G1 St. James's Palace S. winner Barney Roy.

Among North American sires whose first crops are 3-year-olds this year - well, it's only the beginning of March so a lot is going to happen. As of this moment three sires have cumulative progeny earnings over $1.8-million: the one-two from last year's Leading Freshman Sire List, with Hill 'n' Dale's Violence, number two last year, going ahead of last year's winner, WinStar's Overanalyze, in the first two months of 2018. Well in front of them, and all other North American second-crop sires by 2018 progeny earnings, is Take Charge Indy, an A.P. Indy GI Florida Derby-winning half-brother to Will Take Charge who was also at WinStar, but was sold to Korea last year. His filly Take Charge Paula won the GIII Forward Gal and ran second in the GII Davona Dale on March 3, and his colt Noble Indy was third in the GII Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Taylor Made's Graydar, sire of GIII Robert B. Lewis winner Lombo, is second by 2018 earnings, with Violence third. Spendthrift's Jimmy Creed ranks fourth by cumulative progeny earnings, and has four Black-Type Winners and two GSW. Ashford's Declaration of War, whose first crop was sired in Ireland, has three BTW of which two are GSW, while the same firm's Shanghai Bobby and Darley's Animal Kingdom each have three BTW.

The only real action so far this year for European second-crop sires, with their first 3-year-olds this year, has either been in Dubai or in limited appearances on all-weather tracks in Europe. Society Rock, a sprinting son of Rock of Gibraltar who stood in Ireland but unfortunately died before he ever had a runner, was last year's Leading European Freshman Sire, and he still tops the list, ahead of Dabirsim, the top French 2-year-old of 2011 from Hat Trick's first crop. He stood in Germany to begin with but is now back at the Haras de Grandcamp where he is a very popular €30,000 stallion this year. Third is Tweenhills' Havana Gold, a son of Teofilo out of the very tough mare Jessica's Dream, and whose best win came in France's one-mile G1 Prix Jean Prat. Havana Gold's son Headway, who was second in last year's G2 Coventry S. at Royal Ascot, came back with an impressive last-to-first win in the seven-furlong Spring Cup S. on the all-weather at Lingfield on March 3 to kick-start his season. Coolmore's Camelot, the only one-mile Classic winner by Montjeu, is fourth on the European second-crop sires list by cumulative earnings, and certainly did enough last year to suggest he could be a big name in 2018.