Bill's Columns

In our first 2018 APEX column, dated January 9 on the website and emailed January 11, we ran a graph showing the decline in the number of sires which qualified for APEX ratings at the end of each year since 2007. There were 1,156 sires rated in North America, Europe, and Japan in 2007; there are 735 rated in 2018, a decline of 36% (to review: only sires with 3-year-olds and older of the last year covered [2017 this year] are assigned ratings, and sires must have had 10 or more named 3-year-olds in the last year rated, which eliminates the bottom 30% of sires, who have zero impact on the commercial market).

Consequently, only 72 North American and European 'F2013' sires, which had their first foals in 2013 and their first 4-year-olds in 2017, were assigned APEX ratings, and only 75 F2014 sires, which had their first 3-year-olds in 2017, were rated (we separate out Japanese sires as their racing is 99% domestic); these, we believe, are the lowest number of sires ever rated - there used to be over 100 in each NA/EU sire group. Therefore we're only showing the top ten in four categories for each group: through the end of 2017, the top ten by: A Runner Index; Number of A Runners; ABC Runner Index; and Number of ABC Runners. You'll also find a complete alphabetical list with selected fields for each group at the end of this article, and the full details with all the data for each sire is in the complete alphabetical list in the APEX section of our website, www.billoppenheim.com.

One thing small sire crops do is throw into relief the new World Top 12 sires emerging from each group: in these cases, F2013 Uncle Mo and F2014 Frankel. Let's start with the F2013 sires, which had their first 4-year-olds in 2017, and which now, in 2018, have their first 5-year-olds. Uncle Mo tops three of the four groups, with his seemingly perennial number two, Twirling Candy, edging him by ABC Runner Index.

In true Coolmore tradition, Ashford Stud's Uncle Mo had 423 year-starters by the end of 2017 (remember, for the calculations a horse is counted as a runner each year it starts); Workforce (463) had more, but that was in Japan; he's on this list because he's now a jumps sire standing in Ireland. So for Uncle Mo, in Galileo-like fashion, to lead the list by A Runner Index as well as by total number of year-starters is just in itself very impressive. He doesn't just lead the list, either: his 4.49 A Runner Index is actually second among 633 NA/EU sires only to Galileo, and is miles ahead of all other F2013 sires. Four other sires edge above a 2.00 A Runner Index, though three of them are of the minor/regional variety: Giant Oak (2.35), who stood at Millennium Farms in Kentucky and would have been supported now, but unfortunately died; Adios Charlie (2.26), who stands for just $3,000 at Ocala Stud in Florida; and Court Vision (2.11), who has done well with runners from his Ontario crops, and now stands in Louisiana. Also above 2.00 is Twirling Candy (2.05), who actually scores over 2.00 for A Runners, B Runners, C Runners, 2-year-olds, 3-year-olds, and 4-year-olds, and for that reason alone has to be considered terrific value for a proven $25,000 sire.

Uncle Mo has 38 A Runners, more than triple the number of second-placed Zoffany (12), a Coolmore sire in Ireland. One horse can be an A Runner in these calculations more than once, for example Nyquist, only the second horse (quiz answer: Street Sense) to win the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the following year's G1 Kentucky Derby; Nyquist counts as two A Runners, one in 2015, one in 2016. Twirling Candy and Court Vision have 10 A Runners each to tie for third, and Dream Ahead is fifth, with nine; he started out at Ballylinch in Ireland but now stands at Haras de Grandcamp in France.

Twirling Candy backs up his 2.05 A Runner Index with a 2.25 B Index and 2.56 C Index, giving him an ABC Index of 2.36 (1.00=8.00%, so 2.36=18.88% ABC Runners from year-starters). Typically for sires who have such high A Runner indexes, Uncle Mo is not as strong for B Runners (1.77) or C Runners (1.54), so Twirling Candy's 2.36 just edges Uncle Mo (2.33) for top ABC Runner Index among NA/EU F2013 sires. Adios Charlie (1.88) is third in this category, ahead of Girolamo (1.63), a Darley son of A.P. Indy who looks a good buy for Korea. Wootton Bassett, sire of top 2016 European 3-year-old colt Almanzor from a small crop of less than 20, is fifth with a 1.51 ABC Index, which is actually a good sign because there hasn't been much to go on for him and this indicates he really isn't going to be a one-trick pony.

Uncle Mo has a truly massive 79 ABC Runners so far, with Twirling Candy a respectable second (46), well clear of Aracharcharch, a former Spendthrift stallion also sold to Korea (pretty soon we'll have to start looking at their statistics, there are so many ex-American sires there), and Zoffany, tied for third with 30 ABC Runners each. Girolamo and Dream Ahead have 29 each, and Florida's Double Diamond Farm's First Dude, who's doing not too badly, has 28.

Much like Uncle Mo among the F2013 sires, Juddmonte's Frankel, arguably the greatest racehorse who's ever lived, dominates this sire crop, which is only marginally bigger (75) than the F2013's. He's the leading sire by A Runner Index, number of A Runners, and number of ABC Runners, and in this case, only an obscure Canadian sire with very few runners (Signature Red, he's called) tops him by ABC Runner Index.

We require that sires have 200 year-starters before we include them among our overall Leaders' lists. It's very unusual for a sire who's just had his first 3-year-olds to qualify for that list, but Uncle Mo did last year, and actually toppled Galileo as Leading Sire by A Runner Index (Uncle Mo had 23 A Runners/226 year-starters, for a 5.09 A Runner Index). Frankel had 161 year-starters at the end of 2017, which included 18 A Runners, for an 'A Index' of 5.59. The now-veteran top four of Galileo, Tapit, Dubawi, and War Front figures to become a top six here pretty soon, with the addition of Uncle Mo and Frankel. They're that good, so naturally they completely dominate their smaller sire groups.

Spendthrift's Smart Strike horse Dominus (4.31) is off to a really good start and is a horse it makes a lot of sense to bet on; he was full at $7,500 in September, I think. He rates second in this sire group by A Runner Index right now. Two really obscure sires have 4.17 indexes by going 2-for-24: the aforementioned Signature Red, a son of Bernstein who stands in Ontario; and Captain Chop, a son of Indian Rocket (by Indian Ridge) who had a couple of good French-bred 2-year-olds last year. The top North American F2014 sire, Union Rags, comes next with a 2.05 A Runner Index, ahead of Shackleford (1.75).

Frankel has 18 A Runners, which of course is again miles ahead of the opposition. Using Black-Type standards he already has 16 Group winners (GSW). He does still only have two Group One winners, but one reason we try not to jump to conclusions about sires after they've only had 3-year-olds race is simply because many racehorses mature as 4-year-olds, and a horse like Frankel has the right profile to look even better after his first 4-year-olds have run. Union Rags is second with eight A Runners, and gets extra credit because four of them are Grade I winners, which by itself just about makes him an elite sire even though, in strict APEX terms, he isn't yet as consistent a sire of 'break-even-or-better' runners as you'd like to see. However, he does have four G1 winners already, and he also is only just having his first 4-year-olds run; he won the G1 Belmont, remember, so they are more likely to improve with age than some others. Shackleford is third in this category, with six A Runners; his runners improved significantly from two (0.77) to three (1.81), and he is one, at $20,000, who could break out into the public eye this year.

The long Woodbine season with good purse money means Ontario stallions pop up on these lists, which are earnings-based, quite regularly, and Signature Red is the latest. From 24 year-starters he's had five different horses become A Runners or B Runners, which has helped earn him a 3.13 ABC Runner Index, higher even than Frankel's 2.64 index. A son of Bernstein who was a good turf sprinter in Canada, Signature Red was discovered pretty quickly, and moves to Adena Springs North for only C$3,000, so maybe we'll hear more about him in the future. I always liked Caleb's Posse, who defeated Shackleford and a really salty field in the 2011 G1 Breeders' Cup Turf Mile at Churchill Downs; I didn't bet him that day, but I was impressed with him. He stands for only $5,000 at Three Chimneys; he has no A Runners and only one B Runner, but he has 9 C Runners (3.57 C Runner Index), and so ranks third among NA/EU F2014 sires with a 1.98 ABC Runner Index. Dominus (1.94) is fourth, followed by a son of Bernardini I had never heard of, Messner, who is a ¾-brother to Malibu Moon who now stands in Venezuela and has 3 Pennsylvania-bred B Runners (7.50 B Runner Index) from 20 year-starters (the minimum for being rated), and a 1.88 ABC Index. He stood at Penn Ridge Farm in PA, and I'm guessing they'd probably like to have him back.

Frankel has 34 ABC Runners, far ahead of the pack; tied for second, with 19, are Shackleford and Stay Thirsty, who was relocated to California from Kentucky for this year. Union Rags (16) is next, followed by a four-way tie for fifth, with 15: England's Cheveley Park Stud's Mayson, a sprinting son of Invincible Spirit; and three Kentucky stallions - Dialed In, Creative Cause, and Tapizar.